Prior week — call accuracy
- Correct — Meta: last week's channel-breakout setup delivered a move of just under 17%; he has taken profits at the top of the move (detail below).
- In progress — S&P: the range-in-the-green-box call is intact. Money flow is now making lower highs on the daily and he expects the Market Cipher B trigger wave to confirm this week — the fade he has been positioning for is close but not yet triggered.
- In progress — Bitcoin: the fair-value green box continues to hold as the DCA zone, but the 3-day Wolfpack ID confirmation he is waiting on has still not printed.
Macro and the week ahead
- S&P top-down: price is still in the green box but daily money flow is making lower highs, Wolfpack ID is about to curl off and VWAP is rolling over — trigger-wave confirmation on the daily looks imminent. The alternative is one more sweep higher that prints a bearish divergence (momentum down, price up) to mark the top.
- The leading warning will come from the 1-hour cumulative volume delta: at value-area high, price is stalling while delta falls away — either longs are being absorbed or late buyers are being trapped. He reads it as clear uptrend exhaustion, and will flag the CVD shift to members in real time.
- Seasonality: July is a 100% win-rate month for the S&P on the calendar-effects tool, but the median return is low — a sideways month fits 'sell in May' with big players on holiday. Seasonal weakness really starts in August, possibly again in October, before November — on average one of the best months of the year — brings the pickup.
- Candidate catalysts for the pullback: IPO supply unlocking (with more IPOs potentially adding supply), or an underwhelming earnings season triggering a more fundamental sell-off.
- Levels: the obvious downside magnet is value-area low around 7,000 — a psychological number, and only ~5% below current price. A deeper midterm-year pullback targeting the lows put in earlier this year would be roughly 15%. Valuation models still say the S&P is expensive, but a full mean reversion to model fair value is unlikely — the base case is a rotational move from value-area high to value-area low with the uptrend imbalance intact.
- COT: commercials remain net sellers of the S&P (flagged since the first game plan of the year), and now retail and non-commercials are following — every participant category is reducing long exposure or adding shorts. His summary: when in doubt, cash out and enjoy summer.
Key stock analysis
- Meta — profits taken on a move of just under 17% into value-area high. He exited at the low-volume node defined by the actual distribution of transacted orders rather than the volume-profile line — profile lines are subjective, so be dynamic with profit-taking. CVD divergence at the highs plus a developing bearish engulfing candle supported the exit. Plan: hopefully it round-trips to PC, sets a higher low, and can be re-accumulated for Q4 at larger size — it remains a high-conviction ('super G', 25% allocation-tier) name.
- Sizing model — the live-trading-group model's conservative sizing is still beating the S&P year-to-date; in 2025 the same model returned just under 50%, and going risk-on that year could have doubled an account. Tiers as stated: super Gs ~25% allocations, Gs ~10%, everything else 1–4%.
- AMD — frothy and unhealthy: stalling sideways with momentum and money flow falling off and a poor 4-hour Sharpe ratio. An AMD pullback could trigger the hardware bear market and drag Nvidia with it — both are watch-list names at lower levels on a retest.
- Robinhood — no longer trading as a clean market beta the way it did in 2025; the PC-to-current move was ~57% versus the 100% a break of the old highs would have offered. CVD sell signals (double stars) and rolling momentum/money flow at the edge of fair value. He wants to buy the green box — not anchored VWAP or PC — targeting a 2027–2028 move back to highs worth almost 200% from that entry.
- Netflix — already holding a 50% starter position. The Sharpe ratio is very attractive; he is waiting for money flow to curve up, and it could reprice quickly around earnings. Seasonally July is one of its worst months and October one of its best — accumulate in July, take profits into Q4.
- Alibaba — daily Sharpe ratio oversold, price pushing up to anchored VWAP. Thesis: a move to value-area high, roughly 48% upside — and a possible inverse-correlation play in Q4 if US hardware names roll over.
- Gold — its correlation with the S&P has risen this year (it normally trades inverse), so a second-half S&P pullback could keep dragging it down; his bet is it decorrelates and trades like a hedge again. Small, low-conviction parking position: down 28–29% off the highs, a recovery to highs is ~40% — the margin of safety he wants.
- McDonald's — fully allocated. July and August are among the stock's best calendar months; watching for a strong reaction at earnings at the start of next month.
- Nike — fully allocated, potentially a multi-year hold; he calls it arguably the most attractive price in Nike's history on a risk-adjusted basis. Rotational targets: ~57% back to the high-volume node, roughly a double at value-area high. Weekly bullish momentum divergence is in, but monthly momentum is still falling — the low may not be in and it could dip once more before turning up into 2027.
Bitcoin and crypto
- MicroStrategy — monthly VWAP is still falling, so the monthly green dot is not close; the weekly momentum wave looks indecisive and needs a strong weekly close to open upside to PC at 140. With daily momentum and money flow falling, the chart likely retests its lows first.
- BitMine — same picture: momentum rolling over, money flow falling. Both names simply follow Bitcoin and Ether — potentially a leading sign that Bitcoin grabs its lows one more time.
- Bitcoin — the 3-day Wolfpack ID confirmation has not printed; on Heikin Ashi, momentum is coming in but is not yet strong enough. Wait for confirmation before any leverage — but the green box remains an attractive DCA zone. On the White House Clarity Act meeting: if it's in the news, it's probably in the price.
- COT — Ethereum just printed one of its best COT index scores in a very long time, and Bitcoin commercials are the most net-long since the all-time-high range while retail keeps fading the move — the same commercials-stacking-into-retail-selling pattern that preceded the last bear-market bottom's rally.
- Upside math — a simple return to prior highs from current price is a double; the ATH to ~$140k adds only ~10% more, but given this asset class's volatility a run to $100k–140k is exactly the rotational setup he likes, even with diminishing returns over time.
Astrology and space
- Mercury retrograde is live, and it remains his timing frame for the pullback. The full-history hit rate actually favours the S&P rising through retrogrades (the index drifts up over time), but the recent Trump-era sample is different: the Liberation Day crash, last year's volatility spike, and the February–March pullback this year all landed precisely in retrograde windows. He is watching for a repeat — a pullback into value-area low or the anchored VWAP within this window.
Positioning (as stated)
- 50% of his personal portfolio is in cash — uncomfortable by his usual standards but deliberate for a midterm year, echoing the cash-heavy stance that preceded this year's earlier deployment and quick profit-taking. Current book: Meta profits banked (~17%), a 50% starter in Netflix, fully allocated in McDonald's and Nike, a small low-conviction gold position, and Alibaba plus Robinhood (green box only) on the watch list. In crypto he stays a green-box DCA buyer, with leverage off the table until the 3-day Wolfpack confirmation.
Key takeaways
- The S&P is flashing uptrend exhaustion — daily trigger wave near confirmation, CVD divergence at value-area high, and every COT participant group cutting long exposure. Base case is a rotation to value-area low around 7,000 (~5% down); the midterm-year tail risk is a ~15% pullback to the early-year lows.
- The data argues for sitting on your hands: July is a positive-win-rate but low-return month, real seasonal weakness starts in August, and the better buying opportunities should arrive September–October ahead of November strength.
- In crypto the smart money is accumulating — record-strength ETH COT score and BTC commercials at their most long since the ATH range — so DCA the green box, but no leverage until the 3-day Wolfpack ID confirms the turn.
Summary of the weekly members video for educational purposes only. Not financial advice, not a recommendation, and not a trade signal. Past analysis is not indicative of future results.