The Terminal
Live desk briefing across Motion, Time and Space. The IN FOCUS rail surfaces whichever tools are reading extreme right now — it changes as conditions do.
In Focus Now
Tools with extreme or actionable readings, ranked by urgency — recomputed every 15 minutes.
Fast credit repricing has led every modern equity drawdown — this is the page to watch until it calms.
Extreme fear is a contrarian buy zone when the macro backdrop isn't breaking.
Deeply undervalued across 6 independent models — a long-horizon tilt, not a timing signal.
Deeply undervalued across 16 independent models — a long-horizon tilt, not a timing signal.
Deeply overvalued across 3 independent models — a long-horizon tilt, not a timing signal.
Materials (XLB) rotated Lagging → Improving, last week and more — money is on the move between sectors and asset classes.
Confluence Board
How much of the stack agrees, per asset
| Asset | Score | M | T | S | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Long Bonds | +40 | +25 | +100 | 0 | Bullish lean |
| Bitcoin | +20 | +50 | 0 | 0 | Bullish lean |
| S&P 500 | +18 | 0 | +50 | +10 | Mixed |
| Ethereum | -2 | +25 | -50 | +11 | Mixed |
| Russell 2000 | -9 | -50 | +50 | -12 | Mixed |
| Nasdaq 100 | -24 | -50 | 0 | -12 | Bearish lean |
| Gold | -42 | -50 | -100 | +28 | Bearish lean |
Space Backdrop · -14 risk-off
The shared macro environment behind every trade
Business cycle: US in Late phase (composite 71/100). Late-cycle: expansion intact but aging — leadership narrows and quality outperforms.
Yield curve: Curve flat · bear steepener. Flat curve — the growth signal is undecided.
Credit spreads: HY at 327bps (78th pct of this feed's history), 20d velocity alarm. Spread velocity alarm — credit is repricing fast.
Global liquidity: Headwind easing. Liquidity is below year-ago levels (-5.2% YoY) but the recent impulse (-0.8% ann.) is less negative — the drain is decelerating.
Financial conditions: Very tight (+0.95σ, tightening). Tight conditions choke risk appetite.
Volatility regime: Nervous (VIX 19.03, 64th 10y pct) · dealers short gamma (−$24.30bn/1% ex-0DTE). Nervous, two-way tape.
Market breadth: Broad advance: 65.1% above 50-day, 17 new highs vs 0 lows. Participation confirms the tape.
Motion
Structure & fair value — what to trade
SPY: Daily uptrend (hh + hl), weekly uptrend (hh + hl). Timeframes agree — structure is tradeable. Distribution: up/down volume 0.61×, OBV falling.
S&P 500 -32.7% · Nasdaq 100 -8.8% · Russell 2000 +12.1% vs model composites
Materials (XLB) rotated Lagging → Improving, last week — accumulate — best risk/reward of the cycle.
Broad advance: 65.1% above 50-day, 17 new highs vs 0 lows.
Nervous — VIX 19.03, dealers short gamma (−$24.30bn/1% ex-0DTE) (Cboe chain 03:40 UTC).
Shift: NASDAQ × Crude -0.18 → -0.58; best diversifier Dollar.
Time
Momentum & timing — when to trade it
Space
Macro, cycles, seasonality & positioning — the environment around it
US in Late phase (composite 71/100). Late-cycle: expansion intact but aging — leadership narrows and quality outperforms.
Market-implied Fed path from futures + prediction markets.
Curve flat · bear steepener. Flat curve — the growth signal is undecided.
HY at 327bps (78th pct of this feed's history), 20d velocity alarm. Spread velocity alarm — credit is repricing fast.
Headwind easing. Liquidity is below year-ago levels (-5.2% YoY) but the recent impulse (-0.8% ann.) is less negative — the drain is decelerating.
Very tight (+0.95σ, tightening). Tight conditions choke risk appetite.
S&P: Oct averages +0.8% with a 50% win rate over 10 years.
Turn-of-month, OpEx week and day-of-week edges — plus monthly stats for any ticker.
Q4 of a midterm year has averaged +6.1% (n=7).
S&P: Commercials accumulating: +25,476 over 4 reports. (CFTC, Tue 2026-10-13)
Retrogrades, eclipses and aspects with measured historical impact.