The Terminal
Live desk briefing across Motion, Time and Space. The IN FOCUS rail surfaces whichever tools are reading extreme right now — it changes as conditions do.
In Focus Now
Tools with extreme or actionable readings, ranked by urgency — recomputed hourly.
Extreme greed borrows returns from the future — tighten risk on longs.
Extreme fear is a contrarian buy zone when the macro backdrop isn't breaking.
Deeply undervalued across 6 independent models — a long-horizon tilt, not a timing signal.
Deeply undervalued across 16 independent models — a long-horizon tilt, not a timing signal.
Deeply overvalued across 5 independent models — a long-horizon tilt, not a timing signal.
Deeply overvalued across 4 independent models — a long-horizon tilt, not a timing signal.
Confluence Board
How much of the stack agrees, per asset
| Asset | Score | M | T | S | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin | +44 | +75 | +33 | +14 | Bullish lean |
| Ethereum | +34 | +75 | 0 | +14 | Bullish lean |
| Gold | +8 | +25 | 0 | -7 | Mixed |
| Russell 2000 | +4 | 0 | 0 | +14 | Mixed |
| S&P 500 | +2 | -25 | +25 | +14 | Mixed |
| Nasdaq 100 | -6 | -25 | 0 | +14 | Mixed |
| Long Bonds | -29 | -25 | -50 | -14 | Bearish lean |
Space Backdrop · +14 risk-on
The shared macro environment behind every trade
Business cycle: US in Late phase (composite 60/100). Late-cycle: expansion intact but aging — leadership narrows and quality outperforms.
Yield curve: Curve normal · bull steepener. A positively-sloped curve is the expansion default.
Credit spreads: HY at 275bps (15th pct of this feed's history), 20d velocity calm. Credit calm — no stress signal from the bond market.
Global liquidity: Max headwind. Liquidity is contracting -5% YoY and the impulse is still worsening — the toughest configuration for risk assets, particularly the liquidity-sensitive ones (crypto, unprofitable growth).
Financial conditions: Neutral (-0.02σ, loosening). Neither fuel nor brake.
Volatility regime: Nervous (VIX 15.13, 35th 10y pct) · dealers short $21.47bn gamma/1%. Nervous, two-way tape.
Market breadth: Mixed: 59% above 50-day, 9 new highs vs 0 lows. Participation is mixed or narrowing.
Motion
Structure & fair value — what to trade
SPY: Daily range — higher highs but lower lows widening, weekly range — compressing (lh + hl). Timeframes agree — structure is tradeable. Balanced flow: up/down volume 0.85×, OBV rising.
S&P 500 -32.8% · Nasdaq 100 -14.7% · Russell 2000 +0.1% vs model composites
Energy (XLE) rotated Improving → Leading, two weeks ago — hold / buy pullbacks.
Mixed: 59% above 50-day, 9 new highs vs 0 lows.
Nervous — VIX 15.13, dealers short $21.47bn gamma.
Shift: Long bonds × Copper 0.44 → -0.05; best diversifier Crude.
Time
Momentum & timing — when to trade it
Momentum building in Bitcoin, Gold, Ethereum — this week is outrunning the monthly trend.
US Equities 68 · Crypto 71 · Gold 86 · US Dollar 15 (0 fear → 100 greed)
S&P: Aug averages +1.1% with a 70% win rate over 10 years.
Turn-of-month, OpEx week and day-of-week edges — plus monthly stats for any ticker.
Q3 of a midterm year has averaged -1.4% (n=7).
Weekly commercials vs funds positioning across futures.
OI, funding and liquidation ladders for BTC & ETH.
Retrogrades, eclipses and aspects with measured historical impact.
Space
Macro context — the environment around it
US in Late phase (composite 60/100). Late-cycle: expansion intact but aging — leadership narrows and quality outperforms.
Market-implied Fed path from futures + prediction markets.
Curve normal · bull steepener. A positively-sloped curve is the expansion default.
HY at 275bps (15th pct of this feed's history), 20d velocity calm. Credit calm — no stress signal from the bond market.
Max headwind. Liquidity is contracting -5% YoY and the impulse is still worsening — the toughest configuration for risk assets, particularly the liquidity-sensitive ones (crypto, unprofitable growth).
Neutral (-0.02σ, loosening). Neither fuel nor brake.