MTS Confluence
Every engine in the terminal — valuation, rotation, structure, order flow, gamma, momentum, seasonality, sentiment, cycles and the full macro stack — scored into one confluence read per asset. The terminal’s conclusion, on one page.
Space Backdrop
The shared macro environment, scored risk-on vs risk-off — applied to every asset below through its risk profile
4 of 7 macro signals lean risk-on, 1 lean risk-off → backdrop score +43. The environment supports risk — Motion and Time signals can be taken at face value.
US in Late phase (composite 60/100). Late-cycle: expansion intact but aging — leadership narrows and quality outperforms.
Curve normal · bear steepener. A positively-sloped curve is the expansion default.
HY at 284bps (25th pct of this feed's history), 20d velocity calm. Credit calm — no stress signal from the bond market.
Max headwind. Liquidity is contracting -5.
Neutral (+0.19σ, tightening). Neither fuel nor brake.
Calm (VIX 15.99, 42th 10y pct) · dealers long $14.17bn gamma/1%. Calm, mean-reverting tape.
Broad advance: 61% above 50-day, 2 new highs vs 0 lows. Participation confirms the tape.
Confluence Board
40% Motion + 30% Time + 30% Space per asset · click a row for the full signal stack, or run any ticker
| Asset | Score | M | T | S | Confluence | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ethereum ETH-USD | +23 | +75 | -67 | +43 | Bullish lean | |
| Bitcoin BTC-USD | +13 | +25 | -33 | +43 | Mixed — no edge from confluence | |
| S&P 500 SPY | +10 | -25 | +25 | +43 | Mixed — no edge from confluence | |
| Russell 2000 IWM | +5 | 0 | -25 | +43 | Mixed — no edge from confluence | |
| Nasdaq 100 QQQ | -15 | -50 | -25 | +43 | Mixed — no edge from confluence | |
| Gold GLD | -26 | -25 | -33 | -21 | Bearish lean | |
| Long Bonds TLT | -38 | -25 | -50 | -43 | Bearish lean |
Confluence supports a long bias at +23/100. Agreeing: Valuation, Rotation (RRG), Price structure, plus the macro backdrop. Dissenting: Momentum, Seasonality — the tell to watch; if it flips, conviction upgrades. Expression: work entries toward 1848.88 (Prior week low, -0.88%), invalidation below it; first objective 1870.33 (3M POC).
Deeply undervalued — composite fair value +88.7% vs price across 16 models. Slow signal: sets tilt, not timing.
Leading quadrant, heading S (+8.1% vs benchmark over 3m). Own it; buy pullbacks.
Daily uptrend (hh + hl), weekly uptrend (hh + hl). Timeframes agree — structure is tradeable.
Balanced flow: up/down volume 1.27×, OBV rising.
Composite 40/100, 0/4 timeframes aligned, RSI 51.2. No edge for momentum styles — fade the range extremes or stand aside.
Aug averages -2.1% with a 38% win rate over 8 years.
Crypto at 27/100 (Fear). Mid-range — sentiment is not a signal here.
The 60-second version
Every tool in the terminal answers one question well. This page asks the only question that matters at the end: how much of the stack agrees? Each asset is scored across three pillars — Motion (valuation, rotation, structure, order flow), Time (momentum, seasonality, sentiment, cycles) and Space (the shared macro backdrop, applied through each asset’s risk profile — bonds and gold score risk-off environments as tailwinds). The total is 40% Motion, 30% Time, 30% Space, from −100 to +100. Nothing here is a new indicator: every signal links back to a tool you can open for the full picture, and every direction arrow is visible — the scoring is transparent by design.
How to use it
- Trade the extremes, respect the middle — scores beyond ±45 mean most of the stack independently agrees — the setups worth full size. The −20 to +20 zone is the market telling you it hasn't decided; forcing trades there is where accounts bleed.
- Read the dissent first — the thesis names which signals disagree with the majority. That dissenter is your risk: if it flips into agreement, conviction upgrades; if the agreeing signals start flipping toward it, the trade is ageing. It's also your earliest exit signal.
- Express it at the levels — each read carries the nearest volume-backed support and resistance from the Key Levels engine, with confluence scores. Direction from this page, location from those levels, invalidation beyond them — that's the complete ticket.
- Let gamma set the tactics — the context line shows dealer positioning: long-gamma names want patient limit entries at levels (the tape mean-reverts); short-gamma names reward momentum entries (the tape accelerates). Same thesis, different execution.
- Run your own tickers — the search runs a reduced stack (structure, order flow, gamma, momentum, seasonality + the macro backdrop) on any Yahoo ticker. Fewer signals than the majors get, and flagged as such — but the same discipline.
Methodology & honesty
Confluence is context, not a signal service. The signal directions are deliberately coarse (bullish / neutral / bearish) because pretending more precision than the inputs carry is how black boxes lie; the transparency — every read, every source tool, every weight visible — is the product. Known limits: the signals are not fully independent (momentum and rotation share DNA, so agreement between them is worth less than agreement between valuation and order flow); Space is one shared read applied through a crude risk beta; and the slow signals (valuation, cycle) will disagree with the fast ones (flow, momentum) at every turning point — that disagreement IS the information. Scores refresh hourly from the same live engines that power every other page.
In the MTS framework
This page IS the framework: Motion identifies the opportunity, Time confirms the window, Space frames the environment — and confluence is the discipline of only committing serious capital when all three say the same thing. The rest of the terminal exists to make each input honest; this page exists to stop you from cherry-picking the ones that agree with the position you already wanted to take.