Global Liquidity
Central-bank liquidity — Fed net liquidity, money supply and balance sheets — the master tide beneath risk assets.
Track recordAccruing since 13 Oct 2026 · 13 sessions captured · G3 liquidity regime now Max headwind: n = 0 episodes graded at 1w, 1 pending · results from 10 episodes
All states
G3 liquidity regime · live ledger
vs SPY
| State | Ep. | 1w | 1m | 3m |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Headwind easing | 1 | n=1 | n=0 | n=0 |
| Max headwind | 1 | n=0 | n=0 | n=0 |
vs BTC-USD
| State | Ep. | 7d | 30d | 91d |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Headwind easing | 1 | n=1 | n=0 | n=0 |
| Max headwind | 1 | n=0 | n=0 | n=0 |
13 rows · 1 degraded (not graded)
Returns: total return from the next open, 5/21/63 sessions (crypto 7/30/91 days); “ex” = excess over every-day entry. Episodes, not days: a state counts once per spell and overlapping windows are dropped. Averages from 10 episodes; regime reads claim no direction, so no hit rate is shown.
Liquidity regime
Max headwind
Liquidity is contracting -5% YoY and the impulse is still worsening — the toughest configuration for risk assets, particularly the liquidity-sensitive ones (crypto, unprofitable growth).
G3 central banks
$17.34T
as of 28 Oct
Fed 28 Oct· ECB 23 Oct· BoJ 30 Sep (monthly)
US net liquidity
$5.75T
as of 28 Oct
Fed 28 Oct· RRP 29 Oct· TGA 28 Oct
US M2
$23.51T
as of 5 Oct
Stablecoins
$301.4B
as of 30 Oct
The liquidity cycle · YoY rate of change
■ G3■ US net liq■ US M2■ Stablecoins (right)
This is the FLOW — how fast each liquidity pool is growing or shrinking versus a year ago. Stablecoins run far hotter than the fiat legs, so they get the right-hand scale — read each group against its own axis. Assets respond to turns in these lines, not to the levels above: a line hooking upward from below zero has historically been the earliest “tide is turning” signal, arriving before the level itself recovers. Crossings of the zero line mark expansion ↔ contraction regime changes per leg.
G3 liquidity vs Bitcoin · no measurable lead
No measurable lead: the best 0–18 week fit is 0w, r = -0.27, which is not distinguishable from noise (p ≈ 0.68 vs a shuffled-timing null; and a negative r can't mean the asset follows liquidity). Gold line shown unshifted — there is no lead to project.
Blue = Bitcoin 13-week % change (left). Gold = G3 liquidity 13-week % change (right), unshifted — no lead passed the significance test. When these wiggle together, the liquidity signal is live; when they decouple, the narrative is running on something else.
Lead/lag matrix · best-fit lead (weeks) and correlation
13-week changes, 0–18 week lead scan, shuffled-timing null
| Asset | G3 central banks | US net liquidity | US M2 | Stablecoins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin | 0w · r=-0.27p=0.68 · n.s. | 8w · r=0.33p=0.5 · n.s. | 18w · r=-0.16p=0.93 · n.s. | 18w · r=-0.37p=0.46 · n.s. |
| S&P 500 | 12w · r=0.45p=0.2 · n.s. | 14w · r=0.34p=0.46 · n.s. | 10w · r=-0.14p=0.71 · n.s. | 14w · r=-0.24p=0.81 · n.s. |
| NASDAQ 100 | 12w · r=0.43p=0.29 · n.s. | 14w · r=0.35p=0.44 · n.s. | 0w · r=-0.25p=0.17 · n.s. | 15w · r=-0.29p=0.4 · n.s. |
| Gold | 0w · r=0.41p=0.15 · n.s. | 14w · r=-0.35p=0.19 · n.s. | 10w · r=0.14p=1 · n.s. | 17w · r=0.6p=0.01 |
Each cell answers: “when this liquidity measure moves, how many weeks later does the asset respond, and how tightly?” Green = significant positive lead (p < 0.05 vs a shuffled-timing null); red = significant inverse relation; n.s. = not distinguishable from noise. A lead of 0w means coincident. The scan runs over the trailing ~3.5 years (about 170–185 overlapping 13-week changes — only ~14 non-overlapping ones), and picking the best of 19 lags finds r ≈ 0.3 in pure noise, which is why every cell carries a p-value. These relationships drift, which is exactly why this recomputes hourly instead of quoting folklore.
The 60-second version
Liquidity is the tide beneath every asset: the amount of money the system has available to chase things. When it expands, risk assets float higher almost regardless of valuation; when it drains, the same assets sink on the same fundamentals. The catch — and the whole reason this tool exists — is that assets respond with a lag. The popular claim is “Bitcoin follows global liquidity by ~10 weeks”. Instead of repeating that folklore, this page tests whether a lead is measurable live: it scans 0–18 week offsets for every asset against every liquidity source, shows the current best-fit lead and how tight the relationship is, and checks it against pure noise before calling it a lead.
The four liquidity legs
- G3 central banks (the core) — Fed and ECB balance sheets (weekly) plus the Bank of Japan's (monthly — its latest month-end is carried forward between prints), converted to dollars at weekly FX. Balance-sheet money is the causal engine of global liquidity — this is the line the famous overlay charts are really tracking. The card dates each bank's latest print.
- US net liquidity — Fed balance sheet minus the reverse-repo facility minus the Treasury General Account — the dollars actually reaching markets after the two big sinks take their share. The formula that mapped tick-for-tick onto the S&P through 2021-23.
- US M2 — broad money held by the public — weekly, published about 3 weeks after the week it measures, so its card usually runs a few weeks behind the others. Slower-moving, but its year-on-year turn from contraction to growth has historically marked major risk-asset bottoms.
- Stablecoins (crypto-native) — total circulating USD stablecoins from DeFiLlama — the dry powder already sitting on-chain. For crypto specifically, this is the most direct liquidity measure that exists.
How to use it
- Start at the regime verdict — expanding-and-accelerating is the maximum tailwind; contracting-and-worsening the maximum headwind. The IMPULSE (13-week annualised) matters more than the level — assets respond to the change in the flow, not the stock.
- Read the money chart — when a lead passes the significance test, the gold line is G3 liquidity shifted forward by that lead and its most recent stretch is a base-rate sketch of the asset's next weeks — not a prophecy. When no lead passes, the chart says so and draws the gold line unshifted: there is nothing to project.
- Check the matrix before trading the story — the lead and the correlation drift over time. If the matrix marks an asset's lead n.s., the liquidity narrative is not measurable right now, whatever the chart looks like. The matrix is the lie-detector for liquidity Twitter.
- Divergences are the trade — liquidity rising while an asset lags its measured response window = potential catch-up. Asset sprinting far ahead of the gold line = running on narrative, not money.
Methodology & honesty
Fed (WALCL), reverse repo (RRPONTSYD), Treasury General Account (WTREGEN), M2 (WM2NS), ECB (ECBASSETSW) and BoJ (JPNASSETS) come from FRED; euro and yen balance sheets are converted at live Yahoo FX rates onto a weekly grid; stablecoin supply comes from DeFiLlama’s public API. The BoJ reports monthly (FRED dates each month-end on the 1st, so it is re-dated to month-end), and each leg stops at its last real observation rather than rolling forward — the cards show as-of dates. Best-fit leads are Pearson correlations of 13-week changes across a 0–18 week lead scan over the trailing ~3.5 years, recomputed hourly. Overlapping 13-week changes leave only ~14 non-overlapping windows, so the best of 19 lags finds r ≈ 0.3 in pure noise: each best fit is tested against a null that rotates the asset’s own weekly returns (keeping its volatility, destroying its timing), and the chart only shifts the liquidity line for a positive lead with p < 0.05. If a FRED pull fails, the last good pull is served with its own dates and a banner says so. One honest omission: the foreign M2 series (eurozone, Japan, UK, China) are stale or discontinued on this data feed, so no pretend “global M2” is constructed from dead data — the G3 balance-sheet composite is the fresher, more causal stand-in.
In the MTS framework
Liquidity is the widest Space lens of all — broader even than the business cycle. A structurally cheap asset (Motion) in a draining-liquidity regime deserves smaller size than the same setup with the tide coming in. Pair the regime verdict with the Credit Spreads traffic light: liquidity says how much water is in the pool, credit says whether anyone is drowning. When both turn together, believe them.