Sentiment

Sentiment is a contrarian timing layer: markets top when everyone is already bullish and bottom in capitulation. This page measures the mood of each major market separately — equities, crypto, gold, the dollar — on the same 0-100 fear/greed scale, with a year of history, snapshots of where the needle was a week, month and quarter ago, and the one cross-check most sentiment tools skip: how the current mood lines up with the asset’s seasonality for this exact month. Fear into a seasonally strong month is the classic contrarian long; greed into a seasonally weak one is the crowd leaning the wrong way.

• US equities — computed CNN-style Fear & Greed — five of CNN's real sub-gauges rebuilt here from raw data: S&P momentum vs its 125-day average, VIX level, the VIX/VIX3M term structure, 20-day stock-vs-bond demand, and junk-bond demand via real HY spreads. Computing it ourselves means the full daily history is ours and the drivers are transparent — each sub-gauge is shown on the card. HY spreads post about a day after the equity close, so the latest reading uses the most recent FRED print and the card says which date; a gauge with no data shows n/a and is left out of the average rather than counted as neutral.
• Crypto — the industry-standard index — alternative.me's Fear & Greed (the one every crypto dashboard quotes), 400 days of history, refreshed continuously.
• The leveraged crowd — live OKX perpetual funding — perpetual funding rates are what leveraged traders are PAYING to hold their bias — positioning, not opinion. Heavily positive funding = crowded longs and squeeze fuel below; negative = crowded shorts.
• Gold & dollar — labelled proxies — no credible survey exists for these, so the cards use an RSI + momentum-percentile proxy and say so on the card. Honest colour, not fake precision.

• Fade the extremes, not the middle — sub-25 and 75+ are the actionable zones. A 55 reading is noise; a 15 into a seasonally strong month is a signal.
• Read the snapshots strip for the trend of mood — 20 now from 60 a month ago is capitulation in progress; 20 that's been 20 for a quarter is a bear regime, not a bottom.
• Cross the markets — equity greed with crypto extreme fear is a rotation tell; synchronized extreme fear across all four cards is the washout signature that marks cycle lows.
• Confirm with funding — a crypto fear reading plus negative funding = the crowd is short AND scared — historically the highest-octane squeeze setup.

Sentiment is a Time input — a timing overlay that sharpens entries and exits. It works best in confluence: a stretched valuation (Motion) into an extreme-greed reading (Time) inside a late-cycle regime (Space) is a far stronger caution than any one alone. The seasonal-alignment line on each card is that confluence check pre-computed for you.