SpaceMacro context & cycle positioning

FedWatch Probabilities

The market-implied probability of each Federal Reserve rate decision, by meeting date.

Live data·01 Aug, 06:22 UTC·ZQ futures + Polymarket + Kalshi + FRED·15-min cache

Current target range

3.50–3.75%

Next FOMC decision

2026-09-1646d away

◆ Futures vs Polymarket on "no cuts": 12pp — futures more hawkish

Futures imply 100% probability of no net cut by the Dec 2026 meeting; Polymarket prices "Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?" at 88.4%. A real-money disagreement this wide usually resolves toward the futures market — but when it doesn't, the repricing is violent.

✓ The data and the market point the same way

The Taylor gap (-166bps) and the futures path (+54bps by Apr 2027) agree on direction — conviction behind the priced path is data-backed.

Meeting-by-meeting probabilities

Self-computed from Fed Funds futures (ZQ) — CME FedWatch methodology.■ cut■ hold■ hike

Sept 20262026-09-16 · 46dmodal 3.75–4.00 @ 72.9%E[Δ] +18bps
3.50–3.75 · 27.1%
3.75–4.00 · 72.9%
Oct 20262026-10-28 · 88dmodal 3.75–4.00 @ 66.4%E[Δ] +16bps
3.50–3.75 · 31.2%
3.75–4.00 · 66.4%
Dec 20262026-12-09 · 130dmodal 4.00–4.25 @ 65.5%E[Δ] +41bps
3.75–4.00 · 31.7%
4.00–4.25 · 65.5%
Jan 20272027-01-27 · 179dmodal 3.75–4.00 @ 64.8%E[Δ] +16bps
3.50–3.75 · 31.1%
3.75–4.00 · 64.8%
Mar 20272027-03-17 · 228dmodal 4.50–4.75 @ 44.8%E[Δ] +83bps
4.25–4.50 · 41.7%
4.50–4.75 · 44.8%
Apr 20272027-04-28 · 270dmodal 4.00–4.25 @ 42.2%E[Δ] +54bps
3.75–4.00 · 16.8%
4.00–4.25 · 42.2%
4.25–4.50 · 37.3%

Implied policy path

Leg 1 · Futures market

By the Dec 2026 meeting, Fed Funds futures imply:

  • Net cut0%
  • Hold3%
  • Net hike97%

Leg 2 · Prediction markets

Polymarket — How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?

  • no Fed rate cuts88.4%
  • 1 Fed rate cut6.5%
  • 2 Fed rate cuts2.5%
  • 3 Fed rate cuts1%
  • 4 Fed rate cuts0.8%

Leg 3 · The data (Taylor rule)

5.29%holding

With CPI at 3.7% and unemployment at 4.2%, the Taylor rule puts the policy rate at 5.29% vs the actual 3.63% (-166bps). The data says policy is meaningfully too loose — the reaction function argues for hikes, not cuts.

Path drift · implied year-end rate over time

Snapshotted daily by this tool — shows how the market’s Fed view is migrating.

Why this beats a FedWatch mirror

Most FedWatch tools re-plot CME’s numbers. This one computes the probabilities independently from Fed Funds futures and then puts that read on trial against two other money crowds: prediction markets (Polymarket and Kalshi — real dollars staked on explicit outcomes) and the data itself (a Taylor-rule reaction function fed by live CPI and unemployment). When all three agree, the path is priced with conviction. When they diverge, someone is wrong — and the divergence callouts at the top tell you who is likely to blink, and in which direction the repricing runs.

The three legs

  • Futures (what the market prices) — 30-Day Fed Funds futures (ZQ), converted meeting-by-meeting with the same methodology CME documents: the contract's implied monthly average rate is solved for the post-meeting rate, the implied move is split across the two adjacent 25bp outcomes, and the distributions chain forward across meetings.
  • Prediction markets (what the crowd bets) — Polymarket's fed-rates event and Kalshi's per-meeting rate strikes. These attract a different crowd than rates desks — retail-heavy, narrative-fast. Persistent gaps against futures flag either dumb money to fade or early information to respect.
  • The Taylor rule (what the data says) — r* + π + 0.5(π−2) + (u*−u) computed from live FRED CPI and unemployment. Not a forecast of the Fed — a benchmark for whether current policy is objectively tight or loose, and therefore which direction the pressure builds.

How to read it

  • Divergence callouts — the ranked disagreements between the three legs. 'Aligned' is information too — a fully-agreed path means positioning is crowded and surprises hit harder.
  • A dominant bar (>70%) — the market has effectively priced that outcome. Surprises here move markets hardest, precisely because so little surprise was expected.
  • The path, not the point — read the meetings together. The slope of the implied path matters more for risk assets than any single decision.
  • Path drift — this tool snapshots its own implied path daily. The drift chart shows how the market's year-end view has migrated — trend in the pricing is often more tradable than the level.

Methodology & sources

Fed Funds futures prices come from Yahoo Finance (ZQ contracts, 15-minute cache); the current target range from FRED (DFEDTARU / DFEDTARL); FOMC dates from the Federal Reserve’s published calendar; prediction-market odds from Polymarket’s public gamma API and Kalshi’s public markets API (mid of bid/ask where quoted, last trade otherwise; hidden entirely when too thin); CPI and unemployment from FRED. Everything recomputes on each 15-minute revalidate, and each day’s implied path is stored so the drift history accumulates.

In the MTS framework

Fed pricing sits in Space — it defines the monetary environment. A restrictive, “higher-for-longer” path favours defence, quality and a discount rate that pressures long-duration assets; a clear easing path loosens financial conditions and extends risk appetite. We do not trade the meeting. We use the implied path — and especially the disagreements around it — to decide whether the regime rewards offence or caution, then let Motion and Time locate and time the actual opportunity.