MotionStructure & fair value

Relative Strength

Relative-rotation read of which assets are leading, lagging, improving or weakening versus the benchmark.

Live data·30 Oct, 16:58 UTC15-min cache · Yahoo Finance · ~75 ETFs & assets across 6 universes, weekly RRG computed from raw daily closes

Fresh Rotations

Quadrant changes within the last two weeks — the actionable transitions, across all universes · showing 12 of 25, freshest first; NEW badges in each tab mark the rest

  • Styles & Factors Small caps (IWM) rotated Lagging → Improving, last week — accumulate — best risk/reward of the cycle.
  • Asset Classes High yield (HYG) rotated Lagging → Improving, last week — accumulate — best risk/reward of the cycle.
  • Global Markets Germany (EWG) rotated Lagging → Improving, last week — accumulate — best risk/reward of the cycle.
  • Global Markets France (EWQ) rotated Lagging → Improving, last week — accumulate — best risk/reward of the cycle.
  • US Sectors Financials (XLF) rotated Improving → Leading, last week — hold / buy pullbacks.
  • Industries Retail (XRT) rotated Improving → Leading, last week — hold / buy pullbacks.
  • Styles & Factors Dividend (DVY) rotated Improving → Leading, last week — hold / buy pullbacks.
  • Industries Software (IGV) rotated Leading → Weakening, last week — reduce — rotation out underway.
  • US Sectors Materials (XLB) rotated Lagging → Improving, two weeks ago — accumulate — best risk/reward of the cycle.
  • Asset Classes Long treasuries (TLT) rotated Lagging → Improving, two weeks ago — accumulate — best risk/reward of the cycle.
  • Crypto (vs BTC) Avalanche (AVAX-USD) rotated Leading → Weakening, two weeks ago — reduce — rotation out underway.
  • Crypto (vs BTC) BNB (BNB-USD) rotated Lagging → Weakening, two weeks ago — reduce — rotation out underway.

Relative Rotation Graph

Weekly RS-Ratio × RS-Momentum vs S&P 500 (SPY) · 8-week trails · assets rotate clockwise

LEADINGWEAKENINGLAGGINGIMPROVINGRS-Ratio (trend of relative strength) →RS-Momentum →XLEXLVXLPXLFXLBXLUXLYXLREXLIXLKXLC
AssetQuadrantRS-RatioRS-MomDir1m vs SPY3m vs SPYAction
XLE EnergyLEADING102.08101.48→+12%+18.4%Hold / buy pullbacks
XLV Health CareLEADING102.03101.42↗+12.6%+14.4%Hold / buy pullbacks
XLP StaplesLEADINGNEW101.16103.06↗+12.5%+5.7%Hold / buy pullbacks
XLF FinancialsLEADINGNEW100.33101.21↗+6.9%-1.2%Hold / buy pullbacks
XLB MaterialsIMPROVINGNEW99.97101.73↗+8.9%+2.8%Accumulate — best risk/reward of the cycle
XLU UtilitiesIMPROVING99.49101.28↗+10.7%-1.8%Accumulate — best risk/reward of the cycle
XLY DiscretionaryIMPROVING99.44101.32↗+7.2%-2.1%Accumulate — best risk/reward of the cycle
XLRE Real EstateIMPROVING99.13101.47↗+7.4%-4.1%Accumulate — best risk/reward of the cycle
XLI IndustrialsIMPROVING98.56100.46↗+0.7%-8.1%Accumulate — best risk/reward of the cycle
XLK TechnologyLAGGINGNEW99.4398.10↙-8.5%+0.8%Avoid / underweight
XLC CommunicationLAGGING97.9998.88↙-7.8%-9.7%Avoid / underweight

The 60-second version

Every asset is always in a race against its benchmark, and the race has a shape: strength builds (Improving), peaks (Leading), fades (Weakening) and bottoms (Lagging) — then the cycle repeats, rotating clockwise around the graph. This page runs that analysis continuously across six universes — US sectors, industries, styles & factors, asset classes, global markets and crypto majors — each against its natural benchmark, with 8-week trails so you can see not just where each asset IS but where it’s HEADED. TradingView can chart one ratio at a time; this is all of them, positioned, with the transitions flagged.

How to trade the quadrants

  • Improving (top-left) is where alpha is born — relative strength has turned up but the crowd hasn't repriced it. Accumulating here — especially names freshly rotated in from Lagging — is the highest risk/reward entry in rotation strategy. The NEW badge marks exactly those.
  • Leading (top-right) is for holding, not chasing — own it, buy pullbacks, and watch the heading arrow: when a leader's momentum turns south (↘/↓) while still leading, distribution has started — that's the tighten-stops signal, not the add signal.
  • Weakening (bottom-right) is the exit ramp — still outperforming on trend, but the rotation out has begun. Most traders hold too long here because price still looks fine — the graph shows the money already leaving.
  • Lagging (bottom-left) is only interesting when it isn't — avoid by default; the exception is a Lagging name with a north-pointing arrow — the early turn that becomes next quarter's Improving story. That's a watchlist entry, not yet a position.
  • Trails > positions — a long, straight trail means a persistent, tradeable rotation; a tight curl means chop — no signal. The angle of the last segment is the freshest information on the whole page.

Why six universes

Rotation is fractal. The asset-class tab tells you WHERE money is (stocks vs bonds vs gold vs crypto); the sector and industry tabs tell you where it is WITHIN equities; styles catch the growth/value/small-cap regime; global catches the US-vs-world trade; and crypto-vs-BTC shows whether alt-season is on (alts Improving/Leading against Bitcoin) or off (everything Lagging BTC). Reading them top-down — asset class, then sector, then industry — is a complete allocation process on one page.

Methodology & honesty

This is an open recreation of the relative-rotation method, not the proprietary JdK calculation: RS-Ratio is 100 plus the z-score of the asset/benchmark ratio against its trailing 26 weeks; RS-Momentum is the 4-week change of RS-Ratio; both on weekly closes from raw Yahoo daily bars (the last session of each Mon–Sun week: Friday for ETFs, Sunday for crypto), with asset and benchmark matched week by week. The 1m/3m columns span 21/63 benchmark sessions (30/90 days in the crypto tab) and show “—” when the bars can’t be aligned. Quadrant boundaries and clockwise rotation behave like the classic version, but exact values differ from StockCharts’ — use it for POSITION and DIRECTION, not to compare numbers across tools. Relative strength says nothing about absolute return: in a bear market the Leading quadrant just loses least. Check the volatility and breadth pages for whether the tide itself is rising or falling.

In the MTS framework

Relative strength is Motion’s allocation engine. Breadth says how healthy the tape is; volatility says how it moves; THIS page says where to point the capital. The workflow: take the regime from those two pages, then buy from Improving and Leading, trim into Weakening, and let the Fresh Rotations panel surface the changes so you’re rotating with the money instead of after it.