Yield Curve
The shape of the US Treasury yield curve and key spreads (2s10s, 3m10y) — the market's growth-and-recession tell.
Curve shape
FlatBarely any compensation for holding longer maturities — a late-cycle signature. The next 50bps of movement usually declares the regime.
10y − 2y spread
+39bps
Positive slope
10y − 3m spread
+95bps
Positive slope
The curve · today vs 1 month vs 1 year ago
Each point is what the market pays to borrow for that term. The SHAPE carries the signal; the drift between lines shows where the repricing is happening.
Tenor moves · bps
red = yields up · green = yields down
| Tenor | Yield | 1d | 1w | 1m |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1M | 3.91% | +10 | +8 | +12 |
| 3M | 4.00% | +5 | +8 | +11 |
| 6M | 4.07% | +6 | +7 | +8 |
| 1Y | 4.28% | +11 | +12 | +25 |
| 2Y | 4.56% | +13 | +17 | +34 |
| 3Y | 4.63% | +14 | +18 | +36 |
| 5Y | 4.75% | +14 | +21 | +36 |
| 7Y | 4.84% | +13 | +18 | +30 |
| 10Y | 4.95% | +12 | +16 | +25 |
| 20Y | 5.39% | +11 | +12 | +14 |
| 30Y | 5.37% | +9 | +10 | +13 |
If the 10y rises +10bps tomorrow…
trailing-90d regression
- S&P 500-0.95%R²0.29
- NASDAQ 100-1.41%R²0.19
- Small caps-1.58%R²0.43
- Banks-0.54%R²0.09
- Gold-1.42%R²0.16
- Long bonds-1.22%R²0.80
- Bitcoin-1.01%R²0.04
Each bar is the asset’s average response to a +10bp day in the 10-year over the last ~90 sessions. Low R² = loose relationship — treat as a lean, not a rule. Flip the signs for a −10bp (yields down) day.
Curve regime · Bear flattener
21-day Δ2y vs Δ10y · trail = last 6 months
Right of centre = front-end yields rising (bear); below centre = long-end falling (bull-for-bonds). The quadrant you’re in — not the level of rates — is what maps to sector leadership.
Playbook · Bear flattener
Front-end yields rising faster than the long end — the market is pricing more Fed tightening than the long end believes the economy can take.
Favours
- ▸The dollar
- ▸Cash/T-bills (front-end carry)
- ▸Quality over beta
Pressures
- ▸Gold (real-rate headwind)
- ▸Small caps and unprofitable growth
- ▸EM assets
Watch: Persistent bear flattening is how curves invert — it's the late-cycle regime. Each additional hike priced brings the inversion trigger closer.
10y real yield (TIPS)
2.55%+12bps / 1m
10y breakeven inflation: 2.36%
The real yield is the after-inflation cost of money — the single most important driver for gold, unprofitable growth and Bitcoin. Rising real yields pressure all three; falling real yields are their tailwind.
10y−2y inversions → recessions (the honest record)
| Inversion began | Recession began | Lag |
|---|---|---|
| Aug 1978 | Jan 1980 | 17mo |
| Dec 1988 | Jul 1990 | 19mo |
| Feb 2000 | Mar 2001 | 13mo |
| Feb 2006 | Dec 2007 | 22mo |
| Aug 2019 | Feb 2020 | 6mo |
| Jul 2022 | — (no NBER recession followed) | n/a |
Two things the record actually shows: the lag is long and variable (6–22 months), and the danger window historically opens when the curve re-steepens after inversion — not during the inversion itself. The 2022 inversion resolving without recession is the standing counter-example: treat this as a base rate, not a law.
The 60-second version
The yield curve is what the bond market charges to lend to the US government for different lengths of time. Its shape is the market’s consensus forecast for growth, inflation and Fed policy — priced with more money than any equity market on earth. You don’t need to trade bonds to use it: the curve sets the discount rate every stock is valued against, decides whether banks make money, and drives gold and crypto through real yields. This page turns that into two layers: a regime read for positioning, and daily numbers for trading.
For the investor — the regime layer
- Shape + spreads — steep = early cycle, flat = late cycle, inverted = the market says policy is too tight. The 10y−2y and 10y−3m spreads quantify it; the sparklines show the direction of travel, which matters more than the level.
- The regime quadrant — at any moment the curve is doing one of four things — bull/bear steepening or flattening — and each has a distinct sector playbook. Bear steepeners hurt long-duration tech; bull steepeners are the historical recession signature; bear flatteners favour the dollar and cash. The playbook card translates the current quadrant into concrete tilts.
- The inversion record — the honest table: inversions have led recessions by 6–22 months, the danger window opens on the RE-steepening (not the inversion itself), and 2022 broke the streak. Base rate, not law.
For the trader — the daily layer
- Tenor moves table — bps changes per maturity over 1d/1w/1m. Where on the curve the move is happening tells you WHY it's happening: front-end = Fed repricing, long-end = growth/inflation/term-premium repricing. Different causes, different trades.
- Rate-sensitivity board — the piece nobody else quantifies: the live trailing-90-day beta of the S&P, NASDAQ, small caps, banks, gold, long bonds and Bitcoin to a +10bp move in the 10-year. Before you take a position, know what a hot CPI print or a heavy auction does to it — with the R² attached so you know how much to trust the number.
- Real yield — the 10y TIPS yield is the single cleanest driver for gold, unprofitable growth and BTC. When it's rising, those trades are swimming upstream regardless of the narrative.
Methodology & sources
The full 11-tenor Treasury curve (1M through 30Y), the 10y−2y and 10y−3m spreads, the 10y TIPS real yield and the 10y breakeven come from FRED’s daily constant-maturity series. Asset prices for the sensitivity regressions come from Yahoo Finance; betas are ordinary-least-squares slopes of daily returns on daily 10y changes over the trailing ~90 sessions, quoted per +10bps with the fit’s R². The regime classifier compares 21-trading-day changes in the 2y and 10y. Everything recomputes on each 15-minute revalidate.
In the MTS framework
The curve is a Space input — it prices the environment every trade lives in. Use the regime quadrant to set the default posture, the sensitivity board to size positions that fight or ride the rate wind, and the spreads’ direction of travel as the earliest warning that the environment itself is changing. It pairs directly with FedWatch (the implied path) and the Business Cycle (where we are in the arc); Motion and Time still pick the trade — the curve tells you how much wind it’s flying into.