Screener
Two lenses on capital flow. IMB reads intermarket ratios to find sectors absorbing inflows now and surfaces named trade ideas in those hot lanes. ROT runs a Sharpe-180 screen across ~200 stocks for mean-reversion candidates, with sparkline trend per name and counter-rotation flags tied back to IMB. The tabs auto-suggest the right lens for current conditions.
Risk-Off regime — IMB still useful for defensive leadership (XLP/XLU/XLV) and short setups, but trim long theme exposure.
Midterm years carry the deepest average intra-year drawdown of the cycle (~17%) — and the strongest 12 months in the cycle from the midterm-year low (avg ~+32%, positive every time since 1950). Weakness here is historically the buy window.
Macro ratios
8
masters + credit + directional
US sectors
11
full GICS coverage
Theme universe
41
ranked — top 10 surface
Ideas scanned
24
constituents of green sectors
Refresh
15 min
Yahoo data + page cache
Regime verdict
3/4 master gauges bearish — capital is hiding.
Business cycle · US
Phase read: Late, deteriorating. Growth +2.1% y/y (stable). Inflation +3.7% y/y (deteriorating). Yield curve +37 bps — positive. Equity momentum +10.3% y/y.
Expected leaders
Master gauges
The four ratios that anchor the regime. Rule: ≥2/4 bullish before adding theme exposure.
XLY/XLP
Discretionary / Staples
Reaching for risk, or hiding in defence?
Current
1.290
vs SMA20
−2.29%
vs SMA50
−3.63%
HYG/LQD
High-Yield / Investment-Grade
Credit appetite — junk vs safety.
Current
0.744
vs SMA20
−0.53%
vs SMA50
−0.83%
SPY/TLT
Stocks / Long Bonds
Risk vs duration — the macro reach signal.
Current
9.304
vs SMA20
−3.89%
vs SMA50
−2.49%
CPER/GLD
Copper / Gold
Growth expectations vs fear bid.
Current
0.109
vs SMA20
+3.30%
vs SMA50
+6.91%
Credit & breadth
Secondary risk reads — broad participation and credit appetite.
Equal-weight / Cap-weight
+3.34% vs SMA20
+2.86% SMA50
Junk / IG
−0.57% vs SMA20
−0.97% SMA50
High-Beta / Low-Vol
−9.43% vs SMA20
−10.89% SMA50
Small / Large-cap
+2.27% vs SMA20
−0.60% SMA50
US sector ratios vs SPY
Where the leadership is. ★ = expected to lead in this cycle phase. Sorted by % distance from the 20-day SMA.
| Pair | Sector | Cycle | Current | vs SMA20 | vs SMA50 | State | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XLV/SPY | Healthcare Defensive growth. | 0.245 | +7.39% | +9.16% | BULLISH | 9d | |
| XLP/SPY | Staples Defensive consumer. | — | 0.118 | +5.98% | +7.34% | BULLISH | 4d |
| XLU/SPY | Utilities Pure defensive. | — | 0.057 | +5.55% | +5.65% | BULLISH | 1d |
| XLE/SPY | Energy Oil & gas. | 0.092 | +5.51% | +8.64% | BULLISH | 17d | |
| XLB/SPY | Materials Industrial inputs. | 0.069 | +5.19% | +4.17% | MIXED | 13d | |
| XLRE/SPY | Real Estate Rate-sensitive. | — | 0.057 | +5.01% | +2.89% | MIXED | 13d |
| XLF/SPY | Financials Banks / insurance. | — | 0.075 | +4.13% | +2.60% | MIXED | 13d |
| XLY/SPY | Discretionary Consumer risk. | — | 0.153 | +3.63% | +3.49% | MIXED | 16d |
| XLI/SPY | Industrials Capex / cycle. | — | 0.222 | +1.83% | −0.11% | MIXED | 4d |
| XLK/SPY | Technology Tech leadership. | — | 0.237 | −4.31% | −4.11% | MIXED | 15d |
| XLC/SPY | Communications Media + telco. | — | 0.133 | −5.72% | −8.04% | BEARISH | 11d |
Today's ideas — momentum
Top constituents within the green sectors above, ranked by stock's own momentum (% above its 20-day SMA). RS = stock's 20-day return minus its sector's 20-day return — positive means it's leading the sector.
| Ticker | Name | Price | vs SMA20 | vs SMA50 | RS vs sector |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LLY | Eli Lilly | $1,420.86 | +14.02% | +18.68% | +12.62% |
| JNJ | Johnson & Johnson | $275.63 | +5.64% | +3.76% | −4.05% |
| ABBV | AbbVie | $296.36 | +5.20% | +10.04% | +1.06% |
| MRK | Merck | $150.19 | +3.85% | +2.26% | −7.62% |
| TMO | Thermo Fisher | $698.68 | +2.81% | +6.72% | −5.00% |
| UNH | UnitedHealth | $406.64 | +2.00% | +4.22% | −2.36% |
| Ticker | Name | Price | vs SMA20 | vs SMA50 | RS vs sector |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WMT | Walmart | $124.07 | +6.97% | +12.54% | +7.64% |
| PEP | PepsiCo | $138.32 | +5.46% | +3.60% | −1.48% |
| PG | Procter & Gamble | $163.11 | +4.40% | +8.73% | +1.20% |
| PM | Philip Morris | $209.17 | +4.31% | +7.74% | +0.23% |
| COST | Costco | $1,018.45 | +4.11% | +7.95% | −0.73% |
| KO | Coca-Cola | $94.43 | +3.63% | +5.54% | −1.11% |
| Ticker | Name | Price | vs SMA20 | vs SMA50 | RS vs sector |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DUK | Duke Energy | $127.88 | +6.01% | +7.35% | +2.70% |
| NEE | NextEra | $84.04 | +5.66% | +4.73% | +0.04% |
| SO | Southern Co | $94.06 | +4.93% | +7.14% | +3.00% |
| AEP | American Electric | $131.42 | +4.13% | +6.52% | +0.56% |
Buy the dip — pullbacks in uptrending sectors
Constituents trading BELOW their own 20-day SMA but still above their 50-day, inside sectors whose relative-strength uptrend is intact. Deepest dip first. Structure invalidates below the 50-day.
| Ticker | Name | Price | vs SMA20 | vs SMA50 | RS vs sector |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MPC | Marathon Petroleum | $437.56 | −4.39% | +4.76% | −7.25% |
Themes — emerging
Top-10 from a 41-strong candidate universe. Auto-discovered — the list re-orders as capital rotates over months and years.
| Pair | Theme | vs SMA20 | vs SMA50 | State | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IBB/SPY | Biotech (large) Large-cap biotech. | +6.61% | +5.85% | MIXED | |
| OIH/SPY | Oil services Drillers / services. | +6.14% | +3.30% | MIXED | |
| IHI/SPY | Medical devices Med-tech. | +4.80% | +5.17% | BULLISH | |
| XOP/SPY | Oil & gas E&P Producers (smid-cap). | +4.56% | +7.08% | BULLISH | |
| XRT/SPY | Retail Brick + online retail. | +4.43% | +5.10% | BULLISH | |
| XBI/SPY | Biotech (smid) Higher-beta biotech. | +4.35% | +0.58% | MIXED | |
| IBUY/SPY | Online retail E-commerce pure-play. | +4.00% | +3.75% | MIXED | |
| KBE/SPY | Banks (broad) All US banks. | +4.00% | +1.20% | MIXED | |
| ITA/SPY | Defence Aerospace & defence. | +3.94% | −0.36% | MIXED | |
| KRE/SPY | Regional banks Regional bank pulse. | +3.92% | +1.57% | MIXED |
Themes — fading
The 5 weakest themes from the same universe. These are objectively losing capital.
| Pair | Theme | vs SMA20 | vs SMA50 | State | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SIL/SPY | Silver miners Silver producers. | −9.98% | −19.08% | BEARISH | |
| GDXJ/SPY | Junior gold miners Higher-beta gold. | −9.20% | −17.72% | BEARISH | |
| REMX/SPY | Rare earths Strategic metals. | −9.08% | −22.75% | BEARISH | |
| COPX/SPY | Copper miners Copper producers. | −7.78% | −14.44% | BEARISH | |
| GDX/SPY | Gold miners Senior gold. | −7.76% | −14.86% | BEARISH |
How to read it
MTS framing — this is the Space pillar.
Regime first. When the master gauges agree (≥3/4 bullish), capital is leaning into risk. Below 2/4 bullish, defence wins. Mixed = trim.
Cycle overlay. The ★ markers show which sectors historically lead in the current phase. If actual leaders DIVERGE from expected, the cycle classifier may be early or wrong — extra caution warranted.
Themes are auto-discovered. No theme is hardcoded as "the AI play" — the list updates organically. When fintech leaves the top-10 and fusion enters, that's the rotation telling you.
Trade ideas drill down. Within each green sector, the top constituents trading above their own 20-day SMA are the names with both regime AND personal momentum behind them. Stop = SMA20 cross. Cut at first red signal.
Dips are a separate lane. A stock below its own 20-day but above its 50-day, in a sector whose RS uptrend is intact, is weakness inside strength — the seasonal-window setup. Position invalidates on a close below the 50-day. The momentum lane can go empty in a pullback while this lane fills — that's the tape, not a stale screener; check each sector's state age.