Screener
Two lenses on capital flow. IMB reads intermarket ratios to find sectors absorbing inflows now and surfaces named trade ideas in those hot lanes. ROT runs a Sharpe-180 screen across ~200 stocks for mean-reversion candidates, with sparkline trend per name and counter-rotation flags tied back to IMB. The tabs auto-suggest the right lens for current conditions.
Mixed regime with 2 bullish sectors — usable but trim size. Watch for a regime flip in either direction.
Midterm years carry the deepest average intra-year drawdown of the cycle (~17%) — and the strongest 12 months in the cycle from the midterm-year low (avg ~+32%, positive every time since 1950). Weakness here is historically the buy window.
Macro ratios
8
masters + credit + directional
US sectors
11
full GICS coverage
Theme universe
41
ranked — top 10 surface
Ideas scanned
24
constituents of green sectors
Refresh
15 min
Yahoo data + page cache
Regime verdict
2/4 master gauges bullish — no clear regime; trim exposure.
Business cycle
Global growth is decelerating from above-trend levels while policy remains restrictive. Late-cycle dynamics favour quality, large-cap defensives, and commodities over high-beta cyclicals. Watch for the first credit-spread widening as the tell for a phase transition.
Expected leaders
Master gauges
The four ratios that anchor the regime. Rule: ≥2/4 bullish before adding theme exposure.
XLY/XLP
Discretionary / Staples
Reaching for risk, or hiding in defence?
Current
1.337
vs SMA20
−1.67%
vs SMA50
−1.95%
HYG/LQD
High-Yield / Investment-Grade
Credit appetite — junk vs safety.
Current
0.753
vs SMA20
+0.29%
vs SMA50
+0.77%
SPY/TLT
Stocks / Long Bonds
Risk vs duration — the macro reach signal.
Current
9.402
vs SMA20
+0.80%
vs SMA50
+2.66%
CPER/GLD
Copper / Gold
Growth expectations vs fear bid.
Current
0.097
vs SMA20
+0.15%
vs SMA50
−3.06%
Credit & breadth
Secondary risk reads — broad participation and credit appetite.
Equal-weight / Cap-weight
−1.18% vs SMA20
−1.32% SMA50
Junk / IG
+0.26% vs SMA20
+0.73% SMA50
High-Beta / Low-Vol
−1.22% vs SMA20
+0.59% SMA50
Small / Large-cap
−1.98% vs SMA20
−3.02% SMA50
US sector ratios vs SPY
Where the leadership is. ★ = expected to lead in this cycle phase. Sorted by % distance from the 20-day SMA.
| Pair | Sector | Cycle | Current | vs SMA20 | vs SMA50 | State | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XLC/SPY | Communications Media + telco. | — | 0.151 | +3.49% | +3.39% | MIXED | 3d |
| XLE/SPY | Energy Oil & gas. | 0.085 | +1.75% | +6.65% | BULLISH | 25d | |
| XLK/SPY | Technology Tech leadership. | — | 0.242 | +0.16% | +0.57% | BULLISH | 6d |
| XLP/SPY | Staples Defensive consumer. | — | 0.111 | −0.14% | −0.94% | BEARISH | 7d |
| XLF/SPY | Financials Banks / insurance. | — | 0.075 | −0.38% | −0.46% | BEARISH | 3d |
| XLV/SPY | Healthcare Defensive growth. | 0.220 | −1.17% | +0.61% | MIXED | 6d | |
| XLY/SPY | Discretionary Consumer risk. | — | 0.148 | −1.81% | −2.84% | BEARISH | 13d |
| XLRE/SPY | Real Estate Rate-sensitive. | — | 0.057 | −2.05% | −3.87% | BEARISH | 12d |
| XLU/SPY | Utilities Pure defensive. | — | 0.055 | −2.23% | −5.55% | BEARISH | 4d |
| XLB/SPY | Materials Industrial inputs. | 0.066 | −2.99% | −2.80% | MIXED | 7d | |
| XLI/SPY | Industrials Capex / cycle. | — | 0.223 | −3.20% | −5.88% | BEARISH | 20d |
Today's ideas — momentum
Top constituents within the green sectors above, ranked by stock's own momentum (% above its 20-day SMA). RS = stock's 20-day return minus its sector's 20-day return — positive means it's leading the sector.
| Ticker | Name | Price | vs SMA20 | vs SMA50 | RS vs sector |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MPC | Marathon Petroleum | $396.45 | +5.47% | +18.13% | +7.31% |
| CVX | Chevron | $212.17 | +2.46% | +8.47% | +1.85% |
| COP | ConocoPhillips | $136.67 | +2.31% | +10.77% | +3.57% |
| XOM | Exxon Mobil | $165.08 | +1.54% | +6.00% | −1.12% |
| EOG | EOG Resources | $148.54 | +0.76% | +3.75% | −0.07% |
| Ticker | Name | Price | vs SMA20 | vs SMA50 | RS vs sector |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CRM | Salesforce | $259.43 | +10.96% | +29.41% | +35.24% |
| AAPL | Apple | $333.08 | +4.75% | +4.59% | +11.89% |
| MSFT | Microsoft | $505.41 | +2.12% | +10.84% | +5.04% |
Buy the dip — pullbacks in uptrending sectors
Constituents trading BELOW their own 20-day SMA but still above their 50-day, inside sectors whose relative-strength uptrend is intact. Deepest dip first. Structure invalidates below the 50-day.
| Ticker | Name | Price | vs SMA20 | vs SMA50 | RS vs sector |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SLB | Schlumberger | $53.32 | −4.02% | +2.98% | −5.07% |
| Ticker | Name | Price | vs SMA20 | vs SMA50 | RS vs sector |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ORCL | Oracle | $144.79 | −2.89% | +2.86% | −0.79% |
| Ticker | Name | Price | vs SMA20 | vs SMA50 | RS vs sector |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MRK | Merck | $144.85 | −2.27% | +6.23% | +6.41% |
| JNJ | Johnson & Johnson | $266.32 | −1.27% | +1.35% | +2.07% |
| TMO | Thermo Fisher | $613.62 | −0.08% | +5.74% | +4.08% |
Themes — emerging
Top-10 from a 40-strong candidate universe. Auto-discovered — the list re-orders as capital rotates over months and years.
| Pair | Theme | vs SMA20 | vs SMA50 | State | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CIBR/SPY | Cybersecurity Cyber pure-play. | +5.23% | +5.64% | BULLISH | |
| IGV/SPY | Software Software equities. | +3.07% | +7.40% | BULLISH | |
| ARKW/SPY | Next internet Cloud + crypto + IoT. | +2.97% | +6.24% | BULLISH | |
| XOP/SPY | Oil & gas E&P Producers (smid-cap). | +2.83% | +8.69% | BULLISH | |
| HERO/SPY | Esports / video Esports + games. | +2.66% | +4.71% | BULLISH | |
| WCLD/SPY | Cloud computing SaaS / cloud. | +2.11% | +9.00% | BULLISH | |
| BLOK/SPY | Blockchain Crypto equities. | +1.35% | +2.49% | BULLISH | |
| ARKK/SPY | Spec growth Disruptive innovation. | +1.00% | +5.49% | BULLISH | |
| AIQ/SPY | Broad AI AI value chain. | +0.54% | +1.91% | BULLISH | |
| KRE/SPY | Regional banks Regional bank pulse. | +0.08% | −2.12% | MIXED |
Themes — fading
The 5 weakest themes from the same universe. These are objectively losing capital.
| Pair | Theme | vs SMA20 | vs SMA50 | State | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BJK/SPY | Gaming Casinos + gaming. | — | — | — | |
| REMX/SPY | Rare earths Strategic metals. | −9.16% | −8.12% | MIXED | |
| NLR/SPY | Nuclear energy Reactors + utilities. | −7.05% | −4.48% | MIXED | |
| URA/SPY | Uranium Uranium + nuclear fuel. | −6.66% | −2.51% | MIXED | |
| COPX/SPY | Copper miners Copper producers. | −5.75% | +1.16% | MIXED |
How to read it
MTS framing — this is the Space pillar.
Regime first. When the master gauges agree (≥3/4 bullish), capital is leaning into risk. Below 2/4 bullish, defence wins. Mixed = trim.
Cycle overlay. The ★ markers show which sectors historically lead in the current phase. If actual leaders DIVERGE from expected, the cycle classifier may be early or wrong — extra caution warranted.
Themes are auto-discovered. No theme is hardcoded as "the AI play" — the list updates organically. When fintech leaves the top-10 and fusion enters, that's the rotation telling you.
Trade ideas drill down. Within each green sector, the top constituents trading above their own 20-day SMA are the names with both regime AND personal momentum behind them. Stop = SMA20 cross. Cut at first red signal.
Dips are a separate lane. A stock below its own 20-day but above its 50-day, in a sector whose RS uptrend is intact, is weakness inside strength — the seasonal-window setup. Position invalidates on a close below the 50-day. The momentum lane can go empty in a pullback while this lane fills — that's the tape, not a stale screener; check each sector's state age.