Prior week — call accuracy
- On thesis — the S&P pullback continues into seasonal weakness toward the long-term trendline; last week's value-area-low base case stands.
Macro and the week ahead
- Focus on the charts, ignore the news — the low-volume node is make-or-break: hold fair value (bounce to POC) or value-migrate down to value-area-low (~10% retracement).
- Daily momentum push-down still aggressive with money flow falling — not a confirmed bottom yet, though CVD shows shorts being locally absorbed.
- Valuation tool: the gold valuation is the most attractive in ages (equities cheap), a reason the trendline could hold; a full reset is more likely later.
- Short bias this week — Mercury retrograde ends Thursday/Friday and can bring a violent flush; the bullish window opens in the latter half of April.
Key stock analysis
- Read the structure over individual names this week; gold momentum is negative (a possible ~8% pullback that could drag the S&P).
Bitcoin and crypto
- Bitcoin — 3-day Wolf Pack ID green on Heikin-Ashi: at least a relief rally to value-area-low (~$78k), maybe higher; a weekly cross in April would target a POC mean-reversion. Cat eyes on the weekly (Crypto Face '100% bullish') — be prepared for upside.
- Coinbase — weekly Wolf Pack about to cross (~+34% to the next level).
- Ethereum +8% (outperforming Bitcoin); stablecoin adoption (Circle / USDC) the key fundamental — ETH ~57% below its November level.
Astrology and space
- Covered — Mercury retrograde ends Thursday/Friday (a violent flush into the end is possible), with the bullish window opening afterward.
Positioning (as stated)
- Near-term short bias on the S&P while waiting for the bottom; continuing to accumulate the crypto dip.
Key takeaways
- The S&P at the long-term trendline could bounce, but base case still wants a value-area-low test (~10%).
- Short bias near-term (Mercury-retrograde flush risk), then the latter-April bullish window.
- Crypto showing relief-rally signals (3-day Wolf Pack green); Ethereum outperforming, stablecoin adoption the driver.
- Let the charts call the bottom, not the news.
Summary of the weekly members video for educational purposes only. Not financial advice, not a recommendation, and not a trade signal. Past analysis is not indicative of future results.