Prior week — call accuracy
- In progress — S&P: the green-box divergence/fade thesis is intact and developing exactly as staged. Price is still struggling to hold above the outer band of the year-to-date-low anchored VWAP, money flow keeps falling off, and momentum is making lower highs — but the confirming signal (momentum and money flow both crossing negative together) has still not printed. He now times the actual fade to the first two weeks of August.
- In progress — Bitcoin/crypto: the mean-reversion-to-fair-value thesis is unchanged and he still reads the green box as the accumulation zone, with commercials 'aggressively stacking' on COT. No leverage trigger has fired; the Clarity Act meeting in the coming week is the swing factor he is waiting on.
- In progress — cash-heavy stance: he did very little buying over the past week and remains ~50% cash, deliberately patient for lower prices later in the year — consistent with the positioning he has held for several weeks.
Macro and the week ahead
- S&P top-down: price is diverging at the highs inside the green box, having come down to anchored VWAP, pushed up, fallen back to point of control, and now failing again at the outer band — he reads this as a rhythm change. Money flow is rolling off and momentum is making lower highs, but the true top is not in until momentum and money flow cross negative together.
- Timing: July is a low-activity month for traditional markets, so the base case is sideways chop with retail piling into longs into the solar eclipse — his topping window of the first two weeks of August. He expects one possible push higher into that window before the fade.
- RSI bands: still slightly gapped rather than pinched together at overbought — room for one more push up into the eclipse before they pinch and mark the top.
- COT: commercials are net short the S&P while retail traders increased long exposure through July — the same commercials-selling-into-retail-buying setup that preceded the last major fade. His summary: this is a time to be patient, not to overtrade or force it.
- Catalysts / cross-asset: he flags midterms and a seasonality shift out of equities' favour as the backdrop for a market-wide de-risking and VIX spike later in the year — the pullback he wants to buy into.
Key stock analysis
- Coinbase — catching a bid on Clarity Act news, up almost 12% on the day. First upside target is the PC high-volume node near $200 (he expects this hit regardless once money flow and momentum turn in on positive Clarity news), then $250, then value-area-high low-volume node near $280 — ~58% from current price. A full recovery to the all-time high adds another ~58%, so buying here offers ~150% upside realistically over the next 2–3 years, possibly sooner given how shallow crypto's bear market has been.
- MicroStrategy (MSTR) — forming a base with daily momentum coming in; the 2-day chart shows momentum and money flow curling up while price diverges at an extreme of fair value. The heavily-accumulated value area (green box) near $200 is major resistance — he doubts price cleanly breaks it without Bitcoin first making a new high and MNAV expansion. Best long-term driver remains the sovereign-put / strategic-Bitcoin-reserve idea, though the Clarity Act ranks ahead of it as a hurdle. Tactics: if buying now, sell at least 50% ('moon bag') into value-area high to recover initial capital, leave the rest to run to new highs at basically no risk. Watch the DBSI trend line — another confluence at the edge of fair value that likely flatlines before turning up in 2027–2028.
- STRC — still not repegging to $100; the company is managing it by selling Bitcoin holdings. His read: they diluted MSTR to buy Bitcoin high and are now selling that Bitcoin with common equity lower.
- Circle — the more attractive setup than MSTR right now, sitting at value-area low. He wants a deeper discount before speculating — ideally ~60% below the IPO price (below $30, also ~60% from the current price), which would likely need a weak earnings print as IPO overvaluation mean-reverts. If the Clarity Act is bullish it may run instead (fine for crypto broadly); if not, the discount sets up the buy-when-nobody-wants-it opportunity. Analogy: SoFi, which IPO'd near $10 via SPAC, discounted ~50–60%, then delivered a 400%+ move for buyers who held through the doubt. Alert set at the lower zone.
- SoFi — wants to buy again but only down at the Liberation Day low it made last year; sees a strong chance it retests that low. Attractive risk-reward on the downside sweep versus a recovery back into euphoria.
- Tesla — stuck in range with the SpaceX IPO now out of the way and no clear near-term catalyst; struggling at the highs with money flow making new lows and momentum falling. Currently holding anchored VWAP, but he expects the midterm-year de-risking and VIX spike to offer a dip he wants to buy — ideally back at last year's Liberation Day lows.
- Gold — has been unusually correlated with the S&P this year rather than trading inverse, having already discounted its premium after a euphoric blow-off top. He isn't expecting a fast run to highs; value-area high aligns with the Fibonacci golden pocket and a high-volume node for a ~21–23% return, and he sees it potentially performing well into midterms as it decorrelates back into a hedge.
Bitcoin and crypto
- Bitcoin — the market is pricing in the worst case on the Clarity Act, which skews the risk to the upside: bullish news drives a move, and even the worst case has limited downside since it is largely priced in. He'll know 'for better or worse' within the coming week.
- COT — commercials are still aggressively stacking Bitcoin. He notes these participants can influence policy directly and are clearly accumulating, so whether or not the catalyst lands, the extended bear market should eventually mean-revert to fair value.
- Fair-value math — a volume profile over the bear-market period puts fair value up at a high-volume node near $89,000. On his own charting software (the TradingView replacement he is building for better order-flow data), a naked monthly VWAP sits near $75,000 — the near-term target, ~13% above current price, reasonable on either bullish or bearish Clarity news given 3-day and weekly momentum pushing positive.
- Path higher — beyond the ~13% move, value-area high is ~33% up; from there he sees value ranging up toward the highs, with a very fast move likely (potentially within a week) once price clears into the thin-volume zone above, as that region has little resistance.
Astrology and space
- Solar eclipse — his topping window is the first two weeks of August, tied to the eclipse, historically a time of tops. He expects retail to keep piling into longs right into it before the fade, with the RSI bands pinching to mark the high.
- SpaceX — notes the SpaceX IPO is now out of the way, removing that as a near-term catalyst overhang for Tesla.
Positioning (as stated)
- ~50% of his personal portfolio remains in cash, ready to capitalise on lower prices later this year. He is exposed to the market but did little buying over the past week; his stance does not change on this analysis — he is mainly watching the chart and staying patient. Crypto is the asset class he finds most interesting right now given the Clarity Act catalyst, and he is building his own charting software to migrate off TradingView for better order-flow data.
Key takeaways
- The S&P is diverging at the highs — failing at the anchored-VWAP outer band, money flow rolling off, momentum lower highs, commercials net short into retail buying — but the confirmed fade waits for momentum and money flow to cross negative together, which he times to the first two weeks of August around the solar eclipse.
- Crypto is his preferred setup: the market is pricing the worst-case Clarity Act outcome, skewing risk to the upside, with commercials aggressively stacking Bitcoin. Near-term target is the ~$75k naked monthly VWAP (~13% up), then fair value toward ~$89k and higher.
- Across single names the theme is buy-the-discount-when-nobody-wants-it: Coinbase ~150% upside over 2–3 years, Circle wanted ~60% cheaper, SoFi and Tesla wanted back at Liberation Day lows, MSTR a moon-bag trade into green-box resistance. Overall: stay patient, ~50% cash, don't force trades in a quiet part of the year.
Summary of the weekly members video for educational purposes only. Not financial advice, not a recommendation, and not a trade signal. Past analysis is not indicative of future results.