Prior week — call accuracy
- Correct — Last week's S&P green-box resistance call hit: major profit-taking (CVD exhaustion / red spiderwebs, momentum + money flow falling).
- Bitcoin came down near the year-long anchored VWAP (the key support flagged since January); aggressive buyers pushed it back into fair value.
Macro and the week ahead
- S&P below value-area-high → likely a tight daily trigger wave down to the anchored VWAP / PC (4h momentum + money flow falling, Wolf Pack rolling over, RSI bearish divergence; daily money flow still up). The risk-reward of longing up here isn't worth it.
- It can range up here until absorption of longs, then rotate down — possibly retesting the lows or lower in H2 around the astrological green lines / midterms. A top is likely near the August solar eclipse; that H2 pullback is the 'golden buying window' of this midterm year (it's 'totally respectable to do nothing' and wait for it).
- S&P unattractive — prefer betas. Closed his SoFi position at break-even (stopped after 20 days as VWAP / momentum weakened at a trendline).
Key stock analysis
- Robinhood + SoFi — the market betas to buy on an S&P pullback to its local PC.
- Amazon — wants a sharp-ratio reset to green (the green box / value-area-low); VAL → highs ≈ +40%, a 'no-brainer' high-conviction buy. Google — a trendline break opens a range-low test → buy on a sharp-ratio reset.
- SpaceX — the week's most-watched chart (popped ~50% from the open); wait for a discount below the IPO price (~$90 or lower) as unlocks hit.
Bitcoin and crypto
- A weekly bullish divergence is confirming (VWAP curving up, Wolf Pack) — the fair-value green box is shaping up as major support. A reclaim and hold of value-area-low (then a rotation to value-area-high) would be very bullish and mark a strong low; buying in fair value here needs a multi-year horizon (Bitcoin takes ~a couple of years to recover off a bear).
- Balanced downside flag: on the monthly chart, Market Cipher B's VWAP is doing something he's 'never seen in a bear market' — abnormal June selling pushing it deeper rather than smoothing up. NOT his base case, but if fair value fails it opens a move to the extreme ~$28k–34k (−55% from here, an ~80% bear in line with prior cycles).
Astrology and space
- Covered — the green-line astrological events are months out (H2); the August solar eclipse is a likely top around the midterms. The midterm year is historically the worst — trade carefully (the green box = a 'space'/'motion' extreme in the MTS framework; now waiting on the 'timing').
Positioning (as stated)
- Closed SoFi (break-even); no other stock changes. Watching Robinhood / SoFi (betas), Amazon (VAL), Google (range-low reset), SpaceX (below IPO); happy to sit out and wait for the H2 pullback.
Key takeaways
- S&P green-box resistance hit as called — unattractive up here (the risk-reward of longing isn't worth it); likely a trigger wave down to the anchored VWAP / PC, then a range until absorption near the August solar eclipse / midterms — the H2 pullback is the golden buying window.
- Bitcoin: a weekly bullish divergence is confirming and the fair-value green box looks like major support (reclaim value-area-low → value-area-high = very bullish; multi-year horizon to buy here) — but a monthly-VWAP anomaly (abnormal June selling) is a flagged downside risk (extreme ~$28–34k, not base case).
- Prefer betas (Robinhood / SoFi) and quality on dips (Amazon at VAL ≈ +40%, Google on a reset); SpaceX a buy only below its IPO price. Closed SoFi at break-even.
Summary of the weekly members video for educational purposes only. Not financial advice, not a recommendation, and not a trade signal. Past analysis is not indicative of future results.