Prior week — call accuracy
- Correct — The S&P pushed into the green box outlined last week, confirming the resistance zone.
- Correct — Last week's call that 4-hour money flow falling would bring a Bitcoin pullback played out: BTC dumped to the Fibonacci golden pocket as money flow crossed negative.
- Context — The April recovery ran far faster than expected (~1 month), which is why profits were taken aggressively through May.
Macro and the week ahead
- Risk appetite present near-term — momentum and money flow positive, COT shows commercials net long and retail adding — but CVD shows uptrend exhaustion and the Russell hints at a bearish divergence.
- Seasonality — sell-after-May, or a rally into August then a pullback into midterms; 20% H2 drawdown calls stand. The economy is K-shaped, so betas like Robinhood are not outperforming the way they did last year.
- IPOs — SpaceX and OpenAI listings seen as a net negative for equities (supply unlock plus rotation out of names like Microsoft).
Key stock analysis
- S&P 500 — in the resistance box; not interested at these levels.
- Microsoft — 50% position at POC (lower conviction); will add at value-area-low, otherwise rides POC back up.
- Meta — sold the 50% position on absorption of longs (a warning sign); wants the green box / ~500 to rebuild full size.
- Tesla — buy-the-rumour-sell-the-news around SpaceX; short-term up possible but risk/reward poor (about 1 reward to 2 risk), so not buying.
- XPEV — still held.
Bitcoin and crypto
- Bitcoin — COT commercials have flipped net short (losing conviction), which argues for a drift back to POC (around cost basis); retail interest dropped. The Fibonacci golden-pocket green box must hold or it opens POC.
- Support — the anchored VWAP near $58–59k seen as major support; the February low was buyers front-running it. Weekly money flow positive, which historically marks the bear-market low.
- Action — doing nothing; treats this as an attractive spot price ('betting the farm' on spot, so no liquidation risk).
Astrology and space
- Not covered in this week's video.
Positioning (as stated)
- Crypto plays plus Microsoft (50%) and XPEV; sold the Meta position.
- Cash-heavy by design — 'when in doubt, cash out' into the mid-term seasonality.
Key takeaways
- Price is in the resistance box — step back and stay cash-heavy into mid-term seasonality.
- Betas aren't working in this K-shaped tape — don't force them.
- Bitcoin may retest POC near cost basis — hold spot, don't chase; rebuild Meta in the ~500 / green-box zone.
- Treat the upcoming IPOs as a likely net negative for equities.
Summary of the weekly members video for educational purposes only. Not financial advice, not a recommendation, and not a trade signal. Past analysis is not indicative of future results.