Prior week — call accuracy
- No game plan was published for week 32 — he was unwell and travelling. This note therefore grades the week 31 calls across a two-week gap.
- Correct — Solar eclipse timing: the S&P is topping into the solar eclipse, the astrological timing tool he marked on the chart at the start of the year, anticipating peak euphoric energy into the event.
- Wrong — Green box level: he expected the top to print at the top of the green box, and the S&P has overshot it by almost a percent. He is explicit this does not change how he is trading; if anything it reinforces that this is a good time to secure profits.
- Correct — Taking profits: he has been closing out positions across the past week, including a strong Microsoft position, all visible on the live trading group tab.
- In progress — Gold: the relief-rally idea from week 31 is a live position, 50% scaled in, though gold has been pulling back this year rather than catching a clear safe-haven bid.
- Correct — Alibaba/China AI theme: the 'AI Chinese models really start waking up' phase of the roadmap is what he says is playing out now, consistent with the sell-America-AI-buy-Chinese-AI idea flagged previously.
Macro and the week ahead
- Headline call: there is a good chance the high of the year is being put in around now. He allows for a possible very quick recovery between November and December but thinks that unlikely, making this a very important time of year to be positioned correctly. He hopes to be wrong and for the market to hold up better than expected.
- Midterm-year seasonality: a fade is typical, and year-to-date performance has been better than a traditional midterm year. Extrapolating that, the market is too extended versus where it should be at this point in a midterm year, which argues for a really significant correction.
- The first pullback landed as expected; the only thing that played out differently this year was the speed of the recovery. Whether another fast pullback with a quick post-November recovery follows is genuinely unknowable — his approach is to build scenarios from seasonality data, real-time indicators and volume-based contextual levels, then react in real time rather than predict.
- COT — S&P: commercials are net sellers and short while retail has been buying. COT — NASDAQ: the opposite, with retail selling out of big tech while commercials have been consistently buying. He reads this divergence as consistent with a K-shaped economy.
- Safe-haven appetite has been notably absent this year: gold has pulled back, and long-term US bond yields have risen all year just to entice investors into safe havens. The appetite has clearly been in tech, and specifically in sectors like semis.
- Positioning conclusion: with good discounts likely over the coming weeks and months, now is the time to go shopping with the top-level thesis in mind — invest this Q4 into what will thrive in the environment that is coming, not what thrived in the environment seen this year.
Key stock analysis
- The AI labour-market thesis frames every pick — he calls it by far the most important fundamental factor right now, and is linking the AI roadmap report in the video description. His read: agentic AI took off through 2026 (he singles out Claude Code becoming exceptionally good), Chinese models are waking up mid-2026, and the roadmap's 'AI starts taking some jobs' phase arrives later this year. True displacement has not started — current softness is businesses pre-emptively pausing hiring — which is why he thinks the market is complacent about a falling unemployment rate.
- The 2008 analogy: as AI displaces well-paid corporate roles, people cannot pay mortgages or find new jobs, wages stagnate, and certain financial products start to break — mortgages stop making sense and banking institutions struggle. Historically banks going down is when crypto and precious metals catch a bid. He notes a friend who trades for one of the largest funds in the world expects mass unemployment in the coming years, severe enough to break parts of society, and is bullish on real-world AI and robotics despite expected scaling issues, because the money will flow into that narrative regardless. Slower forecasts put mass unemployment (20–30% US unemployment) as late as 2035; he questions how the Fed navigates it without easing to protect the labour market.
- Economies: he offers the deliberately controversial take that existing welfare states such as the UK may fare better in an AI world, since they maintain consumer spending while their currency debases, whereas the US lacks that cushion and faces massive income inequality — which in the short run he thinks sets up a very good bubble.
- Tesla — a pick for real-world AI and robotics, explicitly not for the car business, which he expects to struggle and to drive further discounting in the stock. He took a small speculative bid and exited, because weekly momentum and money flow are still falling with a deep downside momentum wave. He is a definite buyer at the lower lows, wanting a good price given how speculative the theme remains — fads like this appear all the time.
- Netflix — a name he thinks performs well in an AI-job-displacement world. October is generally one of its best months on the terminal's calendar-effects tool, weekly bullish divergences are playing out with oversold RSIs, and the Sharpe ratio indicator looks favourable at this level, though it may range for some time yet. He encourages viewers to run the roadmap report through an LLM to build their own ticker theses.
- Amazon — a major real-world AI beneficiary, stuck in a range, broke to the top of it, came back to the anchored VWAP and then put in a huge recovery within a week. Evidence the bid is already arriving for real-world AI names, which is what makes Tesla one to watch now.
- Snapchat — near its all-time low, on the radar as a research idea rather than a position. The thesis: social media companies move in and out of favour, and a COVID-style abrupt change in the economy and behaviour could bring a bid back, as it did for Snapchat then. The sizing model would allow only 2%, maximum 4% depending on risk appetite — though he notes some viewers may conviction-size larger, and a euphoric moment from this level would be very juicy.
- Emerging themes to watch as they lag behind software — gambling and casino companies, which tend to do well when the labour market shows weakness (one of the trends he actively screens for), and brokers and exchanges such as SoFi, Robinhood and Coinbase. His framing: if you like these names up here, you will love them at a discount.
Bitcoin and crypto
- Bitcoin as the institutional hedge — retail is no longer driving the cycle; it is clearly a hedging asset for institutions, so the question is when they choose to hedge. Right now commercials are buying very aggressively, at their most aggressively long since the prior instance where the market continued higher until it topped, with commercials selling out around that top.
- What he wants to see next is retail putting in a bid so commercials and retail are both net long. Whether that aligns with the Clarity Act is unknown — and he argues the Act may not be needed: simply knowing it is pushed out another year can be enough to let the market trade this range, since prior frothy prices were reached with no Clarity Act at all. He thinks it is a matter of time before Bitcoin moves up, which is why commercials are willing to buy here.
- The alternative catalyst — banking failures rather than regulation, as happened previously. Commercials are the leading indicator; he speculates they may be positioning for banking stress tied to a rising unemployment rate. Markets are forward-looking across a two-year horizon, which is the roadmap window he has just laid out.
- Ethereum — price is at value-area low with commercials accumulating and retail interest slowly appearing. He considers a move up to PC around 2,300 safe to assume, and really wants to see value-area high around 3,300. Whether it goes higher in the short run he is unsure, but a move within the existing range without any Clarity Act is reasonable, and he has a value-migration target set at the high-volume node.
- Crypto's founding logic is the backdrop — the asset class was created after the 2008 banking failures when the system was overlevered and people wanted a safe haven. The system is not necessarily overlevered now, but he suspects those taking on debt are doing so without considering what is coming.
Astrology and space
- Solar eclipse — the central timing tool this week and the one he marked on the chart since the start of the year. Eclipses typically coincide with peak euphoric energy, and he expected the market to get frothy into it; the S&P topping into the event is the call playing out, with the caveat that price overshot his green-box target by almost a percent.
Positioning (as stated)
- He has been taking profits aggressively over the past week, closing out a number of positions including a strong Microsoft trade — all visible on the live trading group tab. The remaining positions are few and largely speculative, so his size in them is already low. Gold is held at 50% scaled in, on a recommended 2% portfolio allocation with a 4% maximum. He notes the standard sizing model is more conservative than he would personally trade after many years of experience, but that following it clearly produces alpha — particularly in a midterm year, which he calls the hardest trading environment; anyone doing well now should fly next year. Tesla was a small speculative bid he has exited, waiting for lower levels.
Key takeaways
- He thinks the high of the year is likely being put in around now — the S&P is topping into the solar eclipse, midterm-year seasonality argues for a fade, and this year's better-than-typical performance means the market is over-extended and set up for a significant correction. Commercials are net short the S&P while retail buys.
- The dominant fundamental is AI's effect on the labour market. True job displacement has not begun, so current unemployment data is misleading; when it arrives he expects mortgages and banking institutions to come under stress, which historically is when crypto and precious metals catch a bid. Invest this Q4 for that environment, not this year's.
- Bitcoin is now an institutional hedge with commercials their most aggressively long since the last major run-up, and the catalyst may be banking stress rather than the Clarity Act. Ethereum at value-area low targets PC around 2,300 then value-area high near 3,300.
- Preferred expressions of the thesis: real-world AI and robotics (Tesla at lower levels, Amazon already bid), AI-displacement beneficiaries (Netflix, favourable October seasonality and weekly bullish divergences), and lagging emerging themes — gambling and casinos on labour-market weakness, plus brokers and exchanges. Snapchat is a research idea at all-time lows, not a position.
Summary of the weekly members video for educational purposes only. Not financial advice, not a recommendation, and not a trade signal. Past analysis is not indicative of future results.