Prior week — call accuracy
- Correct — Prepared for this green-box pullback for weeks; the S&P dropped into it during the expected window.
- Correct — Last week flagged commercials turning net buyers of Bitcoin; that has continued.
Macro and the week ahead
- S&P at value-area-low — relatively cheap (~9% to highs); base case a bounce, with the 200-day EMA as possible resistance; not a prolonged bear, as the Fed isn't hiking.
- Valuation tool: equities cheap versus gold and the bond valuation falling — a deeper reset would be an excellent buying opportunity.
- COT: retail buying the dip at value-area-low; awaiting a green buy signal like Liberation Day. The US is still mid-business-phase — this is seasonal weakness, not recession.
- Roadmap: find support by end-April, a bullish summer to take profits into, then a deeper H2 pullback around the midterms.
Key stock analysis
- Fully allocated on the dip — Robinhood (100%, the S&P beta, ~100% to highs on a rare weekly green buy signal), Meta (full, ~+41% from cost basis), Microsoft (full), Serve Robotics (risky).
- Started a 3x-leveraged Nasdaq long (low-decay ETF, no liquidation) at value-area-low; will add full size if shorts get absorbed.
- VIX hedge: accumulate ~13–15 when 1-hour money flow tapers (the year-start VIX hedge ran +120%).
Bitcoin and crypto
- Bitcoin — COT commercials net long (Goldman says the bottom is in); retail selling, smart money buying is a strong buy signal. The pre-Trump fair-value green box should hold; targets Fib retracements, a POC reclaim, then $100k and Clarity-Act-driven new highs (a swing to the mid-50s anchored VWAP still possible).
- DCA into Bitmine weekly (an ETH proxy).
- Ethereum — basing versus Bitcoin (the Fed balance sheet curving up favours ETH outperformance); deeply undervalued on ETHval (~170%); a weekly aggressive green buy signal.
- PEPE — started a speculative spot position (a robust multi-cycle meme; ~6x to highs).
Astrology and space
- Covered — the start-of-year reference levels were tied to astrological events; the pullback arrived in the expected window.
Positioning (as stated)
- Fully allocated dip buys — Robinhood (100%), Meta (full), Microsoft (full), Serve Robotics; a 3x Nasdaq leveraged long; weekly Bitmine DCA.
- Bitcoin and Ethereum spot; started PEPE.
Key takeaways
- S&P at value-area-low is relatively cheap (~9% to highs) — base case a bounce and a low by end-April, then a bullish summer.
- Fully allocating spot on the dip (Robinhood, Meta, Microsoft) plus a low-decay 3x Nasdaq long.
- Crypto bottom likely in — commercials net long and Goldman calling it; accumulate BTC/ETH and Bitmine, started PEPE.
- Keep a VIX hedge for the H2 pullback.
Summary of the weekly members video for educational purposes only. Not financial advice, not a recommendation, and not a trade signal. Past analysis is not indicative of future results.