Prior week — call accuracy
- Correct — Called the V-shaped S&P recovery on the government shutdown (no jobs data → don't fight the Fed) — it played out exactly. The Russell 2000 trend-continuation call (new ATH) and the Bitcoin new-ATH call (commercials driving the value migration) both hit.
Macro and the week ahead
- Very bullish: gold's monster rally → Bitcoin follows (a ~60-day lag, the Fundstrat chart) — Bitcoin's turn now (capital rotating gold→Bitcoin); October is strong for BTC dominance, Nov–Dec for the whole asset class.
- Valuation tool: equities now fairly valued (no sell signal) → 'probably the start of a mega super cycle'. COT: retail in, commercials net long (slightly trimming), hedge funds still net short = wrong side — 'the most hated rally', not a top/bubble until they go long (the market climbs the wall of worry). S&P on track to $7,000 (the 618 golden pocket, ~3% away).
- Warning on alts: far more token dilution this cycle — stick to large-cap alts; if going far out the risk curve, take VC-style moonshots, otherwise just trade the stock market.
Key stock analysis
- Robinhood (high conviction, hard entry at highs), Reddit (high conviction, double at VAH support), Stride/LRN (50%, double on a dip), ACS (small cap, 50%, add lower), Chewy (mild bullish).
- Future Crest Acquisition Corp (the Tom Lee SPAC) — speculative, +50% to $15 / +100% to $20 on an announcement. Showed real Discord screenshots day-trading Bitmine (~5%+ in a week, 1–2.6% per trade).
Bitcoin and crypto
- Fibonacci extensions (smart money loves them): from here ~7–8% to $130k (reliable); the 786 level is likely a cycle top if the US enters recession, and the Fib-1 extension is where he'd SHORT Bitcoin. Late cycle → expect profit-taking / sideways after; commercials driving the value migration; bear markets not to be feared (recency bias).
- Ethereum could be 'digital oil' to Bitcoin's 'digital gold' (institutions adopting now = a different era) — Fib resistance ~$6,000 (±$300) then ~$7,000, ~30% upside = a better risk-reward than Bitcoin. Bitmine the amplified-ETH / intelligent-leverage play.
Astrology and space
- Not covered this week — seasonality and the gold→Bitcoin lag, but no eclipse / Mercury / numerology.
Positioning (as stated)
- Aggressive leverage longs earlier (the April low — one of his biggest trades in 4 years); now near the golden pocket = maybe no leverage. MicroStrategy the safest (take profits → rotate into Bitmine); high-conviction small caps; day-trading Bitmine.
Key takeaways
- Very bullish — gold's monster rally → Bitcoin follows (~60-day lag), its turn now; S&P on track to $7,000 (the 618 golden pocket, ~3% away), valuation fair = 'the start of a mega super cycle'.
- 'The most hated rally' (hedge funds net short = not a top/bubble until they go long; climbs the wall of worry). Bitcoin ~7–8% to $130k (reliable), the 786 likely a cycle top / the Fib-1 ext = where he'd short; ETH ~30% upside (better RR than BTC, ~$6,000 resistance).
- MicroStrategy the safest → rotate profits into Bitmine; stick to large-cap alts (token dilution); the Tom Lee SPAC the speculative moonshot.
Summary of the weekly members video for educational purposes only. Not financial advice, not a recommendation, and not a trade signal. Past analysis is not indicative of future results.