Prior week — call accuracy
- Correct — Long-bias Coinbase (+16% with leverage), Bitmine and MicroStrategy. Now de-risked: no leverage for the next month (September seasonality), 50% size (add the other 50% in October).
- The S&P put in a new ATH (recovering the bearish-engulfing scare); the Fib extension wasn't significant resistance; it pulled to the anchored-VWAP outer band = trend intact.
Macro and the week ahead
- Alert at 6,300 (trend break); below → 786 / low-volume-node 6,075 / the Fib-golden-pocket + POC green box (~10% pullback) = the buy-aggressively-with-leverage zone (confident the uptrending anchored VWAP holds; the US is late-business-phase, not near recession — don't position for recession too early).
- Jackson Hole Thu/Fri + Powell Friday for cut clarity; odds 99%→92% after a big PPI miss + a retail-sales miss. Valuation: equities expensive vs bonds (negative real rates can persist) — watch the gold line; if it climbs fast, start hedging. COT: hedge funds aggressively net short despite the uptrend (unusual), but commercials (smart money) made a NEW HIGH this week = stay risk-on (retail leaving).
Key stock analysis
- Apple + Intel can work even in a market pullback: Apple (monthly green dot, the AI catch-up, +20% from the line in the sand to the ATH); Intel (the US-government-stake catalyst = 'state-sponsored capitalism' like MP Materials, a monthly trigger wave, into the $30s / +30%).
- Tesla (took profits aggressively at VAH, 20% left; a breakout above the line in the sand is likely a false breakout / squeeze down — trade the 10-min; add at naked PCs / 200-day ~307). Bitmine (added ~$59 avg, 20% size; +24% to the local high, NAV ~$40; the only ETH exposure).
Bitcoin and crypto
- ~950 days into this uptrend (the last was ~1,000 → maybe 1–2 months of bull run left, the time-based cycle thesis) — but getting MORE bullish the longer it runs. COT: smart money net short + retail buying = a risky time to load; hard support $100k (bull-market support band + VAL + the commercial-interest profile). A pullback → -10% (MSTR -10–20%, could break $300), but fundamentals > TA this cycle (post-Trump, divergences disregarded — sideways instead of big pullbacks).
- MicroStrategy the accumulate — MNAV the lowest since 2023 ≈ buying Bitcoin at $60k; a 4h Wolf Pack bullish divergence (like a prior low that ran +40% in two weeks); DCA spot, watch VWAP curving up as the leading confirmation.
Astrology and space
- Covered — a total lunar eclipse (the April analog) + Mercury retrograde, the same astrology in September and again in March 2026.
Positioning (as stated)
- Deleveraged, 50% size, no leverage in September; MSTR DCA spot (lowest MNAV since 2023); Bitmine 20% (add at PC); Tesla 20% (trade the 10-min); watching Apple / Intel; lots of cash to buy the dip with leverage. The VIX (low 14s) = where volatility spikes up again.
Key takeaways
- De-risked for September (no leverage, 50% size — the most black-swan-prone month; a total lunar eclipse + Mercury retrograde, the April analog) but still long (smart money / commercials made a new COT high, retail leaving); a ~10% S&P pullback to the anchored VWAP / golden pocket = the buy-with-leverage zone (a new bull market, the US not near recession).
- Bitcoin: smart money net short + retail buying = risky to load; hard support $100k; expect a pullback (-10%, MSTR -10–20%, could break $300) but fundamentals > TA this cycle (getting more bullish the longer it runs). MSTR the accumulate (lowest MNAV since 2023 ≈ BTC at $60k).
- Apple + Intel can work even in a market pullback; sit on cash to buy the dip with leverage.
Summary of the weekly members video for educational purposes only. Not financial advice, not a recommendation, and not a trade signal. Past analysis is not indicative of future results.