Prior week — call accuracy
- Correct — Last week's relief-rally call into the green box played out (4h hidden bullish divergence + absorption), then it faded back as predicted once the shutdown-end excitement met no actual data (money flow crossed red, CVD higher highs = longs trapped).
- Posted late, hoping the CFTC would publish the COT report — it hasn't, so this stays a 'lack of participation' market where TA is unreliable and money flow is the most trustworthy read.
Macro and the week ahead
- Nvidia earnings = the week's biggest catalyst — with no government data, corporate America's results are the proxy for US economic health; the missing data trickles out through December.
- Recessionary-rate-cut risk: a cut into real labour weakness is bad (the market prices in earnings misses); the Fidelity business-cycle tool shows China recovering, the UK heading into recession, the US the question mark. Hardest trading stretch of his career (the shutdown wrecked indicators).
Key stock analysis
- Copart (CPRT) — full allocation now: a rare weekly setup (momentum + money flow red with overlapping oversold-green RSIs, a Wolf Pack bullish divergence); rotational +50%, an inverse-Mag7 hedge.
- Robinhood (green box shifted below PC), LRN/Stride (a low-cap falling knife, 50% in, a potential multibagger), Coinbase (50% in, expects a break to the gap to add), Xpeng (wants sub-$15). The Russell 2000 trendline is the risk-on/off tell — a break → -13% and everything risky gets hammered.
Bitcoin and crypto
- The 3-day bearish divergence called the top (his most reliable pullback signal) → a ~6-month range-bear like earlier this cycle. So far this is only a mean reversion to the anchored VWAP (Trump-pump anchor) — not a confirmed bear until the ~$80k extreme breaks. Strong support ~$70k+ (a wide high-volume-node = fair value); leverage stop just below the ~$87k anchored VWAP.
- Daily everything reset (RSIs overlapping green) except money flow/momentum need to curve up. Institutions wind down in December → expect strength only in Q1; already capitulation-level liquidations (more than FTX) and extreme fear → a good chance ~$70k holds.
- MicroStrategy dumped hard (RSI bare-market-oversold) — nothing exciting until daily money flow turns, maybe end-Q1/April 2026.
Astrology and space
- Not covered this week — waiting on data; the analysis was TA-, money-flow- and macro-led.
Positioning (as stated)
- Light / no leverage; Copart full allocation; Coinbase 50%; nibbling; MicroStrategy held (options income); waiting for Q1 to add size — use the options strategy (sell cash-secured puts on the way down, covered calls on relief rallies) to lower cost basis.
Key takeaways
- A 'lack of participation' market (the shutdown, no COT data) — TA unreliable, money flow the most reliable; the relief rally faded as predicted.
- Bitcoin so far is just a mean reversion to the anchored VWAP (not a confirmed bear until ~$80k breaks); strong support ~$70k+; no new high in December (institutions on holiday), strength only in Q1; already capitulation-level fear.
- Use the options income strategy to lower cost basis and wait for Q1 to add size; Copart full allocation (rare setup, inverse-Mag7); watch Nvidia earnings + the Russell 2000 trendline for the risk-on/off tell.
Summary of the weekly members video for educational purposes only. Not financial advice, not a recommendation, and not a trade signal. Past analysis is not indicative of future results.