Prior week — call accuracy
- Correct — Called resistance in the green box and a Bitcoin pullback; the S&P stalled at the Fibonacci extension and BTC pulled back to POC as expected.
- Lesson — Oracle: held a 41% drawdown for six months (low conviction, value had migrated lower) and exited at breakeven back at value-area-high — a case for dynamic risk management over a rigid stop.
Macro and the week ahead
- Market is stale — Sharpe ratio neither cheap nor expensive; it will take earnings to drive the next leg, with momentum and money flow rolling over on the 4-hour.
- Seasonality — sell-after-May mid-term setup; H2 drawdown of 10–20% in view (echoing Tom Lee-type calls).
- Volatility hedge — watch 1-hour money flow on the VIX to curve up; mid-term years often tag ~40 VIX, so a hedge bought sub-15 could return many multiples later this year.
Key stock analysis
- Buy zones set, not chasing — Meta (alert on the green box), Amazon (wants the green box or a retest of the lows), Tesla (wants the green box or lower for a 4-hour Sharpe blue — last time preceded a ~200% year).
- Microsoft — took ~5% profit; wants a ~7% pullback / gap retest to re-enter.
- SoFi — wants a retest of the low; Sharpe getting attractive; a hold into Q4 / next year.
- AMD — quick scalp setup as Nvidia strength tends to pull AMD up.
Bitcoin and crypto
- Bitcoin — at the POC high-volume node (fair value) with Sharpe almost blue; COT commercials back to neutral after being short in May. A good area to start/scale a spot position; anchored VWAP a strong support; risk/reward here ~5R–15R.
- Only BTC and ETH — the 'gold standard'; avoid alts until roughly 2028 once new highs are in.
- Ethereum — log-regression bands point to a possible low near ~$1,600; a two-year horizon for ~140% upside. Accumulate spot through the volatility; no leverage.
Astrology and space
- Not covered in this week's video (seasonality only).
Positioning (as stated)
- Crypto — large Bitcoin, accumulating Ethereum, plus Coinbase and Bitmine; may add more Bitmine and nibble Robinhood.
- Stocks — sitting on a lot of cash after exiting Microsoft, software and Oracle.
Key takeaways
- Stale tape — be patient and cash-heavy; wait for earnings or a deeper pullback.
- DCA Bitcoin and Ethereum spot on weakness with a 2–3 year horizon.
- Pre-set buy zones on Meta, Amazon, Tesla and SoFi at value-area-low; consider a VIX hedge when 1-hour money flow turns up.
- Manage risk dynamically — conviction and value, not just a hard stop.
Summary of the weekly members video for educational purposes only. Not financial advice, not a recommendation, and not a trade signal. Past analysis is not indicative of future results.