Prior week — call accuracy
- Correct — Base case was chop in this region with the S&P too expensive to chase; price dropped, sellers exhausted on CVD, then gapped up over the weekend.
- Correct — Took profits aggressively into the unusually fast March recovery, avoiding a round-trip.
- Missed — Robinhood: sold the rip and waited to re-accumulate at POC / the green box, but price never returned, so the re-entry was missed.
Macro and the week ahead
- Mid-term year looking frothy — expects a beta catch-up over the next one to two months, then a stall and a deeper correction into H2 / midterms (the classic mid-term pattern; March was the first, unusually fast, correction).
- Inflation fear looks overdone — CPI and PPI noisy, but Trueflation (real-time) reads healthy. Worst case priced in is roughly one rate hike next year, which has not historically been fatal; possibly none, echoing last year's Liberation-Day low.
- Strait of Hormuz reopening points to a durable solution — risk assets bid, crypto firmer, supporting the view that the market is over-reacting to inflation risk.
Key stock analysis
- S&P 500 / Nasdaq — expensive at the highs with early exhaustion signs; expects rangy chop in the green box. Poor risk/reward buying the index here.
- Meta — highest-conviction idea, sized large; bought at value-area-low; roughly 22% to value-area-high and ~40% to highs unleveraged; holding to highs.
- SoFi — full size; insider buying, entered the buy-zone at POC with seller absorption; ~8R setup, target ~$26 then highs.
- Robinhood — broke above fair value ($75–91); roughly 18% to value-area-high; a beta catch-up play.
- Alibaba — full size; accumulated through the week at favourable risk-adjusted levels with higher-timeframe momentum turning.
- Defensives — Nike at value-area-low, described as the best risk/reward in its trading history and a potential multi-year hold; McDonald's as a midterm de-risking play.
Bitcoin and crypto
- Bitcoin — confirmed 3-day bullish divergence (with Market Cipher B trigger wave), the first real bottoming signal in months; near-term resistance at POC / value-area-high, awaiting further confirmation.
- Ethereum — catching a strong bid and about to print a rare weekly bullish divergence; target back toward ~$4,000 fair value, migrating higher over time.
- Stance — favouring ETH over BTC here (willing to add ETH, not BTC); institutional-era thesis keeps crypto ranging and reverting to fair value before migrating higher.
Astrology and space
- Not covered in this week's video.
Positioning (as stated)
- Full size — Bitcoin, Ethereum, Meta, SoFi, Coinbase, Alibaba (plus a Bitmine/ETH-proxy position).
- Half size — Microsoft, NNE, XPEV.
- Defensive — McDonald's, Nike. Still holding a large cash position; deliberately under-deployed.
Key takeaways
- Do not chase the index up here — rotate into oversold quality at value-area-low with momentum confirming.
- Top longs: Meta, SoFi, Robinhood; Nike and McDonald's as defensives for the eventual H2 correction.
- Crypto is bottoming — Ethereum is the cleaner setup than Bitcoin.
- Stay selective; holding cash is a respectable position until no-brainer setups appear.
Summary of the weekly members video for educational purposes only. Not financial advice, not a recommendation, and not a trade signal. Past analysis is not indicative of future results.