Prior week — call accuracy
- Correct — S&P: the green-box rejection call played out; price is still being turned away at that level exactly as flagged in advance.
- In progress — VIX: the volatility spike he called for has begun, with the VIX moving up over the past week, but not yet the outsized spike. He notes the cause is unknowable in advance — war escalation or otherwise — but historically the VIX spikes at this time of year with or without a catalyst.
- Correct — Microsoft: still grinding higher and holding above the anchored VWAP, with bullish divergence at an extreme of fair value and price moving back toward the magnet. Enough juice to push over PC; a broader seasonal drawdown could still force one more sweep into the green box, which he would treat as the accumulation zone.
- In progress — Bitcoin: the long-standing pre-Trump-pump accumulation zone call is intact and he considers it fortunate that price is back at the level. Bullish divergences are printing with oversold weekly RSI.
- Correct — Gold: the relief-rally idea flagged in last week's game plan is now his highest-conviction trade (detail below).
Macro and the week ahead
- S&P base case: he expects more downside and short-term pain, while cautioning against tunnel vision on the idea. The open question is whether the pullback becomes a bear market — the last one saw the index fail to reclaim its high for roughly 743 days with a 26% drawdown. A 20–25% pullback to the lower level aligns with prior bear markets, and he frames a 26% drawdown as historically not that severe and a good time to accumulate aggressively, absent something fundamentally broken about US equities.
- Devil's advocate on his own call: money flow is still thick, whereas at the comparable prior top money flow was tapering off sharply and considerably more extended. That argues for a shallower pullback and a faster recovery rather than another 743-day grind.
- Daily chart: momentum is already negative while price has not fallen much yet — momentum could clip out here, with VWAP already curling in. Value-area low may simply hold as support; the confirming sequence would be VWAP crossing up, momentum turning up, money flow dipping negative and then recovering at some point after the midterm elections — weakness first, then uptrend.
- Recovery speed ultimately depends on the Fed and monetary policy — a slow grind versus the V-shaped recovery seen repeatedly in recent history. He treats the distinction as speculation that does not matter right now; what matters is the accumulation zone below.
- Practical conclusion: the risk-adjusted return on being long the S&P up here is not attractive and not worth the risk. Better to sit on hands for a few months until midterms are out of the way. If price is higher, so be it; if it ranges, so be it; if it is lower, the cash position capitalises on the dip. His instruction: control FOMO — now is not the time.
- Rotation thesis: the valuation tool shows relative bond valuation pulling back and relative gold valuation looking attractive while the S&P looks frothy. Historically, gold hitting an attractive relative valuation coincides with the S&P hitting resistance as capital rotates out of equities into gold, until gold gets expensive and the capital rotates back — he expects that rotation out of the S&P to hedge the current downside risk.
Key stock analysis
- Gold — his best trade right now. It ticks every box: already down 27% from its year-to-date high, treated as digital gold's safer analogue by investors wary of expensive equities, and attractive on relative valuation versus the S&P. He is explicit that this is not a call for a new all-time high — just relative outperformance, targeting the Fibonacci golden pocket or a retest of the naked PCs left behind on the way down. Momentum is turning up, money flow is not yet making lower highs and is starting to curve up, and RSIs are already oversold.
- Microsoft — holding above anchored VWAP with bullish divergence at an extreme of fair value and enough momentum to push over PC. A market-wide seasonal drawdown could still produce one more sweep into the green box, which he views as the attractive accumulation zone while waiting for the inevitable move up.
- Alibaba — has moved up since he flagged it on an attractive risk-adjusted return. The 'sell America AI, buy Chinese AI' theme is the reason to keep watching it, and it remains a good place to diversify while the risk-adjusted return stays attractive.
- Defensive names — beyond gold, he expects certain defensive sectors may perform well through this period, though he does not name specific tickers.
- On single-name selection generally, he questions whether individual stock picks are even worth running through given the top-down view: with midterms around the corner and poor VIX seasonality, the S&P is not the buy — the dip is better bought in names with their own catalysts ahead.
Bitcoin and crypto
- Bitcoin — the pre-Trump-pump zone remains his accumulation area, marked with a green line on the chart as a reminder. He argues against reading it as a prior bear market and instead points to the historical level where value established for a very long duration, making it serious support. Expect plus or minus 10% inside the zone, but zoomed out over years it is a very attractive accumulation price. From his entry the upside still offers roughly 181% over the coming years — beating the S&P 500, the NASDAQ and property. Bullish divergences with oversold weekly RSI; one more sweep lower is possible and does not concern him, since the objective is buying in the attractive zone.
- STRC — one of the most important charts in crypto right now; the repeg is what matters. It is holding up fairly well with money flow starting to move back in, so it may move back up close to $100 soon. That would let MSTR catch a bid, which ultimately means Bitcoin catches a bid.
- Ethereum — in previous cycles Ethereum bottoms before Bitcoin. Anchored VWAP from the key chart point puts price at the lower standard deviation band; the band itself is only 13% above current price and close to being hit. As price came down to this extreme, VWAP has been diverging and curling up over time — the same behaviour seen once the low was already in previously, raising the possibility the low is in.
- Ethereum setup — the liquidity-grab pattern (red candle, red candle, green candle) is printing here, matching several prior instances. On the daily, money flow is pushing in and the riverbank has turned up from falling; zooming into lower timeframes makes it more attractive. He wants to see extended money flow, which needs a news catalyst, to drive a move to the upper edge of the anchored VWAP around $3,000 — not a new all-time high, just catching a bid back to the range mid within established fair value.
- Broader crypto — a genuine sustained bid likely needs real Clarity Act progress and to be out of the bear-market year, possibly in 2027. In the short run Bitcoin may outperform traditional markets, but he thinks gold catching a bid is the more probable trade.
Astrology and space
- Not covered this week — the timing framework was seasonal and cyclical rather than astrological, centred on VIX seasonality and the midterm-election calendar.
Positioning (as stated)
- He is content to sit on his hands for a few months until midterms pass, keeping a good cash position to capitalise on a dip. Long S&P exposure up here is explicitly not worth the risk-adjusted return, and he stresses controlling FOMO. Within that stance, gold is his highest-conviction trade, Bitcoin's green-box zone stays the accumulation area (from his entry, ~181% upside over the coming years), and Microsoft plus Alibaba remain on the watch list for attractive risk-adjusted entries.
Key takeaways
- The base case is more S&P downside — potentially a 20–25% pullback in line with prior bear markets — but money flow is far less extended than at the last major top, which argues for a shallower drawdown and faster recovery than the 743-day grind. Either way, longing the index up here is not worth the risk-adjusted return.
- Capital rotation is the trade: with the S&P frothy and relative gold valuation attractive, gold is his best idea for a relief rally to the Fibonacci golden pocket or the naked PCs — relative outperformance, not new all-time highs.
- In crypto, watch STRC's repeg as the upstream signal — it feeds MSTR, which feeds Bitcoin. Ethereum looks closest to a turn with the liquidity-grab pattern printing, money flow pushing in and anchored VWAP only 13% away, targeting the range mid near $3,000 on a news catalyst.
Summary of the weekly members video for educational purposes only. Not financial advice, not a recommendation, and not a trade signal. Past analysis is not indicative of future results.