Prior week — call accuracy
- Correct — Called the fade into the green box; longs are being absorbed on CVD (flagged in advance into the solar-eclipse topping energy), and Friday's ruling that Trump's tariffs are illegal triggered Monday de-risking.
Macro and the week ahead
- Bearish bias over the coming weeks — expect a lower high (~just under 7,000) then a ~10–15% pullback to the anchored VWAP / naked monthly VWAPs (the dip-buy zone where valuation buy signals should appear).
- COT: commercials were net short through late 2025 (the rally was retail-driven) and are only now edging net long; retail leaving. Gold/silver bid on the rotation out of US risk.
- The Fed balance sheet is curving up — QE with the new chair (H2 / early 2027) is bullish risk assets over time, so stay risk-on for the bigger picture.
- Nvidia earnings Wednesday the near-term swing (the last two beats sold off).
Key stock analysis
- S&P / Nasdaq toppy (the Nasdaq hasn't made new highs all year); the Russell / small caps are stronger (commercials interested, ISM rising — bullish small caps over years).
- The VIX long has been the easiest trade of the year (+40–60%); accumulate ~13–15 when 1-hour money flow turns.
- Copper: commercials not net long yet — the metals rally is retail-driven; wait.
Bitcoin and crypto
- Bitcoin cheap versus gold (faded to the range's value-area-low; the gold-priced 'bull market' was barely +9%, not a true one); global liquidity expanding points to a relief rally soon, with commercials near net long.
- But the 3-day Wolf Pack hasn't crossed — no leverage long yet (one more ~15% dip to the ~$56k anchored VWAP / golden pocket is likely); trend reversal expected end-March / early-Q2.
- Ethereum set to move once QE hits — the multi-year outperformer.
Astrology and space
- Covered heavily — Mercury retrograde (~26–27 Feb) and a total lunar eclipse (early March) flag the fear window; total lunar eclipses correlate ~90% with Bitcoin bear markets, so this could mark the END of a short (~6–7 month) bear.
Positioning (as stated)
- Bearish near-term; a VIX long hedge (+40%); spot crypto only (no leverage, awaiting the Wolf Pack); holding cash to buy the green-box dip.
Key takeaways
- S&P topping — bearish near-term: a lower high then a ~10–15% pullback to the anchored VWAP is the dip-buy zone.
- VIX long the standout hedge; the lunar-eclipse / Mercury-retrograde window flags the fear.
- Crypto cheap and commercials accumulating, but wait for the 3-day Wolf Pack before leverage (one more dip to ~$56k likely).
- Nvidia earnings the near-term swing.
Summary of the weekly members video for educational purposes only. Not financial advice, not a recommendation, and not a trade signal. Past analysis is not indicative of future results.