Prior week — call accuracy
- On thesis — the S&P broke down from the balance area and wicked precisely off the green box; base case a bounce off the bull-market anchored VWAP (the first mid-term-year drop).
Macro and the week ahead
- A Liberation-Day-2.0 black swan could take it to the bull-market anchored VWAP (-21–25%), but that's not base case; this is mild/seasonal (mid-Feb to mid-Mar weakness).
- Not a recession — Fidelity puts the US in mid-business-phase (labour weakness is the AI productivity shift); FedWatch prices one 2026 cut and the incoming Trump-appointed Fed chair (Q2) likely delivers more.
- The selling is OVERSEAS — COT shows US commercials buying the S&P, Nasdaq and Russell, exactly like Liberation Day; stay risk-on.
- Momentum past the extreme suggests one more swing down; bulls get aggressive once the VIX clears 40.
Key stock analysis
- Mag7 — scaling in at value: Amazon (~60%, robotics wave), Microsoft (started, hidden bull divergence at the anchored VWAP, PE ~25). Watching Nvidia/AMD/Meta for value-area-low (CVD shows shorts absorbed = buyers present).
- Watchlist — Oracle (wait for an anchored-VWAP reclaim), Apple (only ~12% to highs — just buy the index), Stride/LRN (basing, a ~12-month double), Netflix (PE ~39 too rich — prefer Microsoft); Coffee (oversold bullish divergence, +42–48%).
Bitcoin and crypto
- Bitcoin — COT commercials reduced interest this week, so likely one more dip to the mid-50s anchored VWAP (the expected swing-failure / textbook higher low) before the 3-day Wolf Pack crosses green. A rare double weekly green dot says the low is close.
- Bitcoin outperforming gold (3-day RSI oversold versus gold) — historically a low signal; the same setup on Ethereum (a dip then a trendline bounce).
- Confirmation: a 3-day Wolf Pack cross with a clean, smaller trigger wave.
Astrology and space
- Covered — Mercury retrograde ('people go irrational'); the astrological-uncertainty window prepared for.
Positioning (as stated)
- Partial Mag7 longs — Amazon (~60%), Microsoft (started); a Coffee entry; watching Mag7 and betas for value-area-low; expecting one more crypto dip. Spot, no leverage.
Key takeaways
- S&P broke into the green box — base case a bounce off the anchored VWAP (mild, seasonal), not recession; the selling is overseas while US commercials buy.
- Likely one more swing down before the bottom (watch VIX>40, the valuation green signal, the 3-day Wolf Pack).
- Scale into Mag7 at value (Amazon, Microsoft); crypto likely dips to the mid-50s for a textbook low — wait for 3-day Wolf Pack confirmation.
- Ignore the recession/inflation news noise.
Summary of the weekly members video for educational purposes only. Not financial advice, not a recommendation, and not a trade signal. Past analysis is not indicative of future results.