Prior week — call accuracy
- On thesis — S&P at the expected green-box resistance into a huge week: Mag7 earnings (Meta/Microsoft/Google Wed; Amazon/Apple/Coinbase/Reddit/MicroStrategy Thu) plus FOMC Wed (99% cut, 90–100% December cut). The press conference matters more than the cut; TA is less reliable into high-impact news.
- Bullish seasonality intact (September was strong, the October pullback recovered).
Macro and the week ahead
- Valuation tool = another red sell zone (gold pulled back ~9%), but gold is risk-off/defensive — Costco's forward P/E above Nvidia's means everyone is already positioned for the AI bubble to pop, so it isn't a real bubble. Sticky/hot inflation + Fed easing + good earnings = a 'perfect' macro setup for tech.
- Stay risk-on into earnings/FOMC ('don't fight the Fed') despite the green-box resistance, a likely gap-fill (~-6%), and money-flow lower highs; tap-out risk mid-Nov/Dec ahead of the midterm year. STRC the hidden-gem defensive (10% yield, liquid) for 2026.
Key stock analysis
- Meta (highest conviction, +15–20%), Microsoft (held since September, +7–8%, big S&P weight), Nvidia (opened Friday on a trigger wave, +7%). Tesla (no position; wants a post-Optimus dip). MicroStrategy 'intelligent leverage on Bitcoin' (cost basis ~PC, amplified and forgiving).
- Robinhood (likes for Q4, +10–18%, may re-enter on a dip), Reddit (speculative, in drawdown, earnings this week), Coinbase (~breakeven, +25% to highs), the Tom Lee SPAC (a November announcement could move it +40% to $15).
Bitcoin and crypto
- Daily + 2-day + 3-day bullish divergences (the rare 3-day one preceded a big move up) — swept down near the green box, momentum/money flow turning up, Wolf Pack confirmed → at least a relief rally / retest of highs. The counterweight is a weekly bearish divergence at the cycle-highs trendlines + Market Cipher A short signals; RSIs not pinched-oversold-green yet (one more sweep possible). Coinbase +10% Friday = appetite for crypto names.
- Gold's pullback rotates money along the risk curve → Bitcoin. Worth long exposure — via Bitcoin, MicroStrategy, or further out via Ethereum / Bitmine.
- Ethereum held up (no flush to the spider line); a 'very sexy' 3-day trigger wave; long bias. Bitmine the optimal ETH trade — wants it back up to the October level (warrant overhang ~$87.5); needs Bitmine-specific news (a merger / staking → Russell index).
Astrology and space
- Not covered this week — the analysis was seasonality- and catalyst-led.
Positioning (as stated)
- Nvidia (opened Friday on a trigger wave); Meta (high conviction); Microsoft (held since September); MicroStrategy (~PC); Coinbase (~breakeven); Reddit (speculative); no new positions before earnings unless speculative; the Tom Lee SPAC on radar.
Key takeaways
- A huge earnings + FOMC week (99% rate cut) — stay risk-on into it ('don't fight the Fed') despite green-box resistance / uptrend exhaustion / a likely gap-fill (~-6%); seasonality intact, tap-out risk mid-Nov/Dec.
- Gold's pullback rotates money along the risk curve → Bitcoin. Bitcoin daily/2-day/3-day bullish divergences → at least a relief rally / retest of highs (weekly bearish divergence the counterweight).
- MicroStrategy 'intelligent leverage on Bitcoin' at PC; ETH/Bitmine the risk-curve play (Bitmine needs its own catalyst); STRC the 10% defensive hidden gem for 2026.
Summary of the weekly members video for educational purposes only. Not financial advice, not a recommendation, and not a trade signal. Past analysis is not indicative of future results.