Prior week — call accuracy
- Correct — The S&P green-box resistance and Bitcoin pullback-into-the-green-box (marked since Oct 23) both played out; a fade on lack of participation (the shutdown), not aggressive selling.
- A new moon + a Mercury retrograde (until end of November) aligned with the sentiment shift.
Macro and the week ahead
- S&P 4h hidden bullish divergence / CVD divergence → a relief rally to retest the green box, maybe the highs. The government shutdown is 85% to end this week (Polymarket) = relief, but the data won't release instantly and may not be good. Nvidia premarket strong (high demand) = appetite returning.
- Not scared of a bear market — global liquidity is expanding; 'more money is lost waiting for bear markets than in them'.
Key stock analysis
- Meta — started a leverage long (first leverage in months), 50% in: a bullish divergence, a gap, at the extreme of fair value; TP at POC (+30–40%), a passive position runs to new highs. A 'safe chart' (+25% to VAH).
- Bitmine (POC ~$53 → the green box; Vanguard/JPMorgan buying ~$40 fair-value edge), Coinbase (50%, add at/below VAL), Reddit (good earnings, holding), LRN/Stride (50%, passive multibagger), Xpeng (penny EV, wants $15 in Q4).
Bitcoin and crypto
- Pulled into the green box as called; one more wick to POC/anchored VWAP = a clean reset. The trend already turned (200-day EMA / DBSI red), but the POC high-volume-node (most post-Trump buyers' cost basis) is the defense — if held, it's a higher low (healthy). Expect a relief rally to VAH/POC then a range (~$96k–$112k) until a catalyst or money-flow reversal.
- NASDAQ–Bitcoin decoupling: Bitcoin is already at bear-level capitulation while the Nasdaq is up (bullish — a catch-up trade pending). Most Bitcoin gains come in ~10 trading days/year (Tom Lee) — be positioned.
- Ethereum the bullish one — reclaimed the anchored VWAP, a 3-day trigger wave setup (wait for Wolf Pack); a break of the prior-cycle-high resistance → +74% from the ATH is realistic with a catalyst.
Astrology and space
- Covered — a new moon + a Mercury retrograde (until end of November) drove the sentiment pivot; the retrograde-to-retrograde rhythm has been well-respected this bull market. A rally to new highs into the retrograde would be a blow-off-top signal → sell.
Positioning (as stated)
- First leverage in months (a Meta long, TP at POC); heavy DAT exposure (a large Bitmine position, MicroStrategy in drawdown, Coinbase building); risk-on crypto with cash on hand; a first serious red month likely.
Key takeaways
- S&P relief rally to the green box likely (4h hidden bull divergence); the shutdown is 85% to end (relief, but data lags).
- Bitcoin pulled into the green box as called — a relief rally to VAH/POC then a range ($96k–$112k); the trend turned but the POC high-volume-node (post-Trump cost basis) is the defense = a potential higher low; not scared of a bear (liquidity expanding).
- Mercury retrograde (to end of November) → expect a stall, not the moon (a rally into it = blow-off-top → sell). Ethereum the bullish one (+74% from ATH realistic); started a Meta leverage long.
Summary of the weekly members video for educational purposes only. Not financial advice, not a recommendation, and not a trade signal. Past analysis is not indicative of future results.