Prior week — call accuracy
- Correct — Called a textbook pullback in time into the green box; the rejection played out as expected.
- Missed — Closed the MicroStrategy hedge short early (got excited by the Clarity Act Senate hearing) and missed re-entering on the absorption, then MSTR sold off hard — a candid miss.
Macro and the week ahead
- Rate-hike worry — hot, war-driven inflation has FedWatch pricing ~40% odds of a Jan-2027 hike and at least one hike across 2027, though none expected for the rest of 2026.
- Trueflation reads ~2% — real-time and not extreme; the tell would be it pushing well past 2%, which would flag CPI/PPI risk and lift hike odds. Capital is rotating from equities into gold.
- Seasonality — a deeper H2 pullback is the mid-term base case; a sensible time for passive big-tech holders (Nvidia, Meta, AMD) to trim and step back.
- Catalyst — Nvidia earnings Thursday: a beat lets the S&P grind up in the box; a miss could be the 'sell in May' trigger for the H2 pullback.
Key stock analysis
- S&P 500 — at the 1-Fib extension green box; resistance but not a major top yet (no CVD warning). COT commercials and retail still net long, so ~4–5% more upside is possible, perhaps later in the year.
- Nasdaq — daily Wolf Pack ID about to cross negative; expects a pullback to the Fibonacci golden pocket / value-area-high (786, EMA ribbons) rather than a top, since money flow is still rising.
- McDonald's — bought as a defensive play (~22% to highs), a safe place to park capital over the summer.
Bitcoin and crypto
- Bitcoin — Clarity Act news was positive but didn't break the early-May high (absorption); price pulled into the first green box and is testing the anchored VWAP. COT commercials bought back in after the Act, so this may just be a Fibonacci retracement / bottoming area — defend the $70s.
- Signals — 3-day money flow positive with a green dot (historically the bear low), but needs Wolf Pack ID confirmation; the monthly trigger is weeks away. Watch 4-hour money flow to turn up before considering leverage longs.
- Ethereum — the ETH/BTC pair is weak (buying favoured BTC); ETH outperformance begins once weekly money flow turns green (possibly Q4 / the 4 July Clarity Act).
- PEPE — stopped out at breakeven; don't chase alts until BTC and ETH find support.
Astrology and space
- Not covered in this week's video (macro and seasonality only).
Positioning (as stated)
- Closed the Robinhood beta trade and rotated into a defensive McDonald's position.
- Held then closed the MicroStrategy hedge short; PEPE stopped out at breakeven; core Bitcoin / Ethereum spot held.
Key takeaways
- S&P range-bound at resistance — Nvidia earnings is the swing factor; trim and step back into mid-term seasonality.
- Rotation into gold and defensives (McDonald's) as rate-hike fear builds.
- Bitcoin likely bottoming (3-day green dot) — but wait for 4-hour money flow and Wolf Pack ID confirmation before leverage.
- Avoid alts (PEPE) until Bitcoin and Ethereum stabilise.
Summary of the weekly members video for educational purposes only. Not financial advice, not a recommendation, and not a trade signal. Past analysis is not indicative of future results.