The 2026 roadmap
- The first game plan of 2026 — a year-ahead roadmap from seasonality, the 4-year election cycle and astrology.
- The mid-term year is the hardest to trade: a stock-picker's, trade-with-the-trend market that can still finish positive but with large retracements.
Macro and the year ahead
- Seasonality: January strength → mid-Feb/March weakness (a low ~March) → the best bullish trading stretch (spring–early summer) → a July–September stall / summer lull → a Q4 rally (not guaranteed).
- Mid-term-year specifics: the deeper pullback comes in the SECOND half (the low typically mid-Aug to late-Sept; average high-to-low drawdown ~17%, sometimes 20–25%).
- Constructive backdrop: inflation under control (Trueflation), the market pricing two 2026 rate cuts (~April + the new Fed chair ~July), liquidity expanding with mild QE — a multi-year-bull setup with corrections, not a recession (the US is late-business-phase).
- Near-term: bearish / low-conviction (money flow crossing red, commercials net short, CVD exhaustion) — size down and hold cash.
The five trading mantras for 2026
- When in doubt, cash out.
- Low conviction, size down.
- React, don't predict — trade with the trend (Market Cipher DBSI on the 1h/4h); don't try to catch the exact bottom early in the year.
- Capture some of the move, not all of it — trade from abundance, not scarcity.
- There's always another trade — protect capital, avoid FOMO.
Bitcoin and crypto
- Bitcoin — commercials very short but reducing shorts (a support tell); the trend (Market Cipher DBSI) broke red for the first time this bull market. Best case a relief rally to POC / ~$100k (a lower high), then a pullback into the green box → an irrational low = the bear-market bottom (discounting the Trump / institutional volume node). Not a deep bear — different liquidity cycle and participants.
- Ethereum the bigger trade of the year — Bitcoin carries 4-year-cycle baggage while ETH hasn't had its spotlight (a gold→silver-style rotation); ETH could print a new all-time high in Q1 as Bitcoin only relief-rallies. Bitmine the main ETH vehicle.
Astrology and space
- Covered — this is the year's astrology roadmap: a mid-Feb solar eclipse (markets top into solar eclipses), a Mercury retrograde plus total lunar eclipse (early March; lunar eclipses ~90% correlated with Bitcoin bear-market turns), Uranus into Gemini as the year's theme marking the end of the first confusion, an Aug-13 solar-eclipse euphoria top, then a final-quarter Mercury-retrograde reversal.
Positioning (as stated)
- Low-conviction Q1 — sized down, a healthy cash buffer, no leverage; spot BTC/ETH with Bitmine the ETH vehicle; bearish near-term.
Key takeaways
- The mid-term-year roadmap: two 'confusion' windows (mid-Feb and the deeper H2 / Aug–Sept low, ~17% average drawdown); the spring-to-August stretch after the first window is the leverage-long golden period.
- Five mantras: when in doubt cash out; low conviction size down; react don't predict; capture some not all; there's always another trade.
- Macro constructive (rate cuts, QE, late-cycle not recession) — a multi-year bull with corrections.
- Crypto: a relief rally then one more dip = the bear low; Ethereum the bigger trade (Bitmine the vehicle).
Summary of the weekly members video for educational purposes only. Not financial advice, not a recommendation, and not a trade signal. Past analysis is not indicative of future results.