Prior week — call accuracy
- On thesis — entered the Mercury-retrograde window (prepared for months) and, on cue, weekend Middle-East escalation; longs absorbed, money flow falling, the first Market Cipher A short signal since pre-Liberation-Day.
Macro and the week ahead
- Seasonal weakness — base case a ~10% pullback toward the anchored-VWAP green box (~6,300–6,400); the weekly short signal hints at something deeper than a V-shape.
- COT: US commercials buying the S&P/Nasdaq/Russell (positioning for up or a shallow dip), with retail and trend-followers out.
- Running NO leverage by design into the mid-term-year pullback — only amplified beta bets (Bitmine); the leverage buy-the-dip window is April, with profit-taking into summer and a deeper H2 (October) pullback to prepare for.
Key stock analysis
- Watchlist with buy zones — Robinhood (the #1 beta, ~+93% to highs from value-area-low, alert ~$61), AMD (green-box zone, ~+95%), Meta (value-area-low retest, +26–40%), Microsoft (anchored-VWAP support, PE ~24; a drop to ~20 PE would be a fire sale to buy with leverage), Tesla (wants ~$300 golden pocket, +60%; robotics plus the Elon merger).
- Pennies, sized-for-zero — XPEV (~$10 basis), Serve Robotics (+229%). Circle (USDC) +90% post-earnings — skipped on IPO discipline.
Bitcoin and crypto
- Bitcoin — at the anchored VWAP with momentum bottoming, a money-flow divergence, Wolf Pack turning and shorts trapped on CVD; tracking the rising Clarity-Act Polymarket odds. Base case a seasonal relief rally to the bull-market band ~$87k (+27%), then likely one more April dip = the year's low (the green box / production cost).
- Bitmine the high-conviction amplified ETH play (~1:1 MNAV now; if ETH runs +80–300%, Bitmine to $87–$100+; holding for $100+, not selling the relief rally).
- Ethereum — absorption at the same level and oversold; more catalysts ahead than Bitcoin.
Astrology and space
- Covered — Mercury retrograde plus weekend Middle-East escalation; a total lunar eclipse (bear markets tend to be sandwiched between lunar eclipses) hints this could be near the end.
Positioning (as stated)
- No leverage by design; spot plus amplified beta (Bitmine the main holding, accumulating).
- Waiting to buy the dip on betas (Robinhood #1) and Mag7 (AMD/Meta/Microsoft) at lower levels; XPEV and Serve Robotics as speculative pennies.
Key takeaways
- Mercury-retrograde pullback underway (~10% toward the anchored-VWAP green box) — likely deeper than a V-shape; stay short-biased and unleveraged until momentum bottoms.
- The leverage buy-the-dip window is April; take profits into summer and prepare for a deeper H2 pullback.
- Crypto: a relief rally to ~$87k then likely one more dip = the low (the lunar-eclipse end-of-bear thesis); Bitmine the high-conviction ETH amplifier ($100+ target).
- Buy zones set: Robinhood (#1 beta), AMD, Meta, Microsoft, Tesla ~$300, plus speculative pennies.
Summary of the weekly members video for educational purposes only. Not financial advice, not a recommendation, and not a trade signal. Past analysis is not indicative of future results.