Prior week — call accuracy
- In progress — Last week's call was an S&P pullback to PC / the anchored VWAP, then a quick recovery back into the box. So far it's chop: no new high, no aggressive buyers stepping in on delta ('nothing of interest right here') — which itself fits midterm-year seasonality.
- Correct — Bitcoin came back into the fair-value green box right down to the anchored VWAP flagged for months, and buyers are stepping in at it (see the COT read below).
Macro and the week ahead
- First game plan run through the MarketDrip Terminal (live for everyone): US equity sentiment is in greed while crypto sits in extreme fear — either equities are frothy, or crypto is extremely oversold. Global liquidity has been contracting since crypto topped at the end of last year, so ask why the S&P is running this hard against it.
- Valuation tools: the S&P has extended past fair value on every model. Bitcoin is undervalued on the composite — his read of fair value is ~$92k (the mean-reversion / resistance level in a bear market); stock-to-flow bulls can argue ~$200k in a bull market.
- MTS Confluence board: Russell 2000 is the strongest bullish setup on the board — capital rotating out of large caps further along the risk curve (classic late-cycle behaviour with liquidity contracting), possibly into small caps and a contrarian pickup in BTC / ETH.
- July is a 100% win-rate month for the S&P (calendar-effects tool) but the gains are front-loaded in the first ~7 days — and it's playing out: S&P nearly +1% and NASDAQ +1.34% on the day, Robinhood and SoFi catching a bid. The monthly open is 7,543 — he wants July to close above it.
- Base case: the S&P ranges in the green box (possibly tagging value-area high) until the solar eclipse at the start of August, then starts to fade. Midterm years typically return only ~2% (maybe 4–5%) — and this year is already extended versus the average midterm path, so don't expect a crazy push higher.
- Trade idea: long the VIX — wait for money flow to cross back into the green; ~125% from his marked entry (better from current price), and leveraged ETFs can turn a 100% VIX move into ~300%.
Key stock analysis
- Meta — very attractive: wants a breakout of the downward regression channel as money flow crosses in (the daily is almost there at the PC). That trigger opens value-area high and possibly a new all-time high; lots of good PR and earnings at the end of the month.
- STRC — trading at 90, should eventually re-peg back to 100; MicroStrategy could start to catch a bid once that re-peg happens.
Bitcoin and crypto
- This Mercury retrograde could be the bottom: commercials in the COT report are aggressively stepping in (just like the last sideways basing period of this bear), the daily Sharpe-ratio indicator is in the blue oversold zone (last seen at the prior bear-market low), and money flow is far milder than prior bears — 'this bear market has been mild' by historical standards.
- A 3-day bullish divergence is in on Market Cipher B — waiting on Wolfpack ID to cross into the green on the Heikin Ashi candles, the classic bear-market-low confirmation.
- The green box / anchored VWAP is holding as major support, and the divergence he wanted is showing: CVD flat-to-up while price grabbed new lows (a liquidity grab into the level).
- Still open to one final swing-failure / liquidity grab in Q4 (October–November) to mark the official low — the market feels fixated on an October bottom, and with the S&P bias bearish into H2 a full decorrelated moon-shot is unlikely. But hedge the too-predictable cycle: accumulate in the fair-value green box now (e.g. scale 50–70% in, keep dry powder for October) rather than sit out and risk being blindsided like the premature breakout last cycle.
Astrology and space
- Mercury retrograde is live now (through Jul 25): reliably a volatility spike rather than a directional bias — and for Bitcoin the ~50/50 hit rate is the point: major trend pivots cluster around retrogrades, so watch for this one marking a low.
- Next 5-star event in the financial-astrology tool: the total solar eclipse at the start of August — the S&P hit rate sits near the 50/50 pivot zone, i.e. a potential trend change, exactly the H2 astro line he's had marked on the chart all year. We're in the H1→H2 window where the market can still trend up into the event before the fade.
Positioning (as stated)
- Already allocated into Bitcoin at fair value ('I want to be in this asset class when it's taking off'); suggests scaling 50–70% in and keeping dry powder for a possible Q4 low. Watching: a VIX long (waiting for the money-flow cross into green), the Meta channel breakout into earnings, and the STRC re-peg / MicroStrategy follow-through.
Key takeaways
- Equities greedy and overvalued while crypto is fearful and undervalued — a rotation along the risk curve, with the Russell 2000 the strongest setup on the MTS Confluence board.
- Ride July's front-loaded seasonal strength above the 7,543 monthly open, expect the S&P to stall in the green box and fade into the August solar eclipse — the VIX long is the way to express it.
- Bitcoin: accumulate in the fair-value green box at the anchored VWAP (commercials buying, oversold Sharpe ratio, 3-day bullish divergence pending Wolfpack confirmation), while budgeting for one final Q4 liquidity grab to mark the official low.
Summary of the weekly members video for educational purposes only. Not financial advice, not a recommendation, and not a trade signal. Past analysis is not indicative of future results.