Prior week — call accuracy
- Correct (both bold calls) — Bitcoin's 3-day bearish divergence at the cycle-top trendlines played out (a sharp rejection from VAH); he opened his first Bitcoin short of the year (10x, sold 40% at +50–55%, targeting PC). The S&P green-box resistance hit (momentum crossed negative for the first time since Liberation Day).
- Still long the S&P — not the start of a scary bear market.
Macro and the week ahead
- The valuation tool's short signal doesn't always get a buy signal — with the Fed cutting (≈100% Oct, 94% Dec, 50% Jan), the market climbs the wall of worry. The S&P is at ~50% of the Fib extension = 'only halfway through the bull run' (+9–10% more upside). The VIX had its biggest spike since Liberation Day.
- The anchored-VWAP outer band (from the Liberation Day low) is the true algorithmic bull-market support (auction market theory beats moving averages). Wait for the Market Cipher B green dot to add leverage longs; money flow is super thick (bullish). A deeper pullback only on a black swan.
Key stock analysis
- Meta (highest conviction, cost basis ≈ price, a safe park). Microsoft (safe, has done nothing since July, money flow will cross green). Tesla (50% in at PC, a trigger wave, Optimus-event risk — an imbalance setup, double down lower).
- MicroStrategy (drawdown at VAL, took out a naked PC, daily bullish divergences, waiting on Bitcoin; its cycle high came ~a year before Bitcoin's). Bitmine (wicked-and-rejected the October green box; active at PC, double at VAL to ~$50; +74% risk-reward to the warrant overhang).
Bitcoin and crypto
- TA looks bad (3-day + weekly bearish divergence, money flow / RSI falling, a blood diamond) — holding the short (stop at entry); but holding MicroStrategy / Bitmine / Coinbase ('don't fight the Fed'; Nov/Dec likely positive). Past December with no move → stricter risk management.
- A deep bear is unrealistic (institutional asset; the largest-ever liquidation barely registered; the ~$30k 'presidential high-volume-node' from the Trump pump won't break). Base case: a ~50% worst-case bear, prefers a quick sweep below $100k → PC then a slow grind up. Only a parabolic Christmas move to ~$200k would make a deeper 2027 pullback realistic. No COT data (the shutdown); gold's move → Bitcoin inflows ~60 days later (≈end-Oct/Nov).
- Ethereum pushed through all its spider-lines but 3,500 (the major support) — maybe ~8% more down then that's the extent; needs a clear catalyst (Trump's family is accumulating ETH = they know something's coming). V-shaped recoveries typical — wait for Wolf Pack green.
Astrology and space
- Not covered this week — the analysis was TA-, macro- and valuation-led.
Positioning (as stated)
- Long the S&P (waiting for the green dot to add leverage); his first-ever Bitcoin short (10x, partially closed, stop at entry); holding MicroStrategy / Bitmine / Coinbase; Meta highest conviction; Tesla 50% (an imbalance setup).
Key takeaways
- Both bold resistance calls hit (Bitcoin's 3-day bearish divergence + the S&P green box) — opened his first Bitcoin short of the year (10x, +50%, target PC), but stays long the S&P ('don't fight the Fed', only halfway through the bull run; the anchored-VWAP outer band is the true support; wait for the green dot to add leverage).
- Bitcoin TA is ugly (weekly bearish divergence, a blood diamond) but a deep bear is unrealistic (institutional; the ~$30k 'presidential node' won't break) — base case ~50% worst case, prefers a quick sweep below $100k to PC then a slow grind up.
- Ethereum needs a catalyst (Trump's family accumulating; ~8% more down to 3,500); Meta highest conviction; MicroStrategy / Bitmine the asset-backed crypto leverage (Bitmine +74% risk-reward to the warrant overhang).
Summary of the weekly members video for educational purposes only. Not financial advice, not a recommendation, and not a trade signal. Past analysis is not indicative of future results.