Prior week — call accuracy
- Correct — Called the S&P to continue its pullback out of the upper green box on uptrend exhaustion / profit-taking; targeted point of control and likely down to the anchored VWAP beneath it.
- Correct — Pullback into PoC showed absorption of shorts on CVD — exactly the responsive bid the read called for.
- Now watching — Daily momentum setting up a Market Cipher B trigger wave on still-thick money flow; short-term bias is for an impulse back up unless price drives through the upper green box without absorption of longs, in which case the bias flips.
Macro and the week ahead
- Midterm-year seasonality — we are now entering the greatest historical decline window of the four-year cycle (now through October). The 'sell in May, walk away' call from May was set up for this exact stretch.
- COT extreme — commercials are net short the S&P; the recent COT-Index shift confirms smart money is fading retail's buying into the highs.
- Dollar weakness — commercials have a steady declining position on the dollar index (smart-money divergence on the COT). Heading into midterms, a political shift historically pressures the dollar.
- VIX regime change — volatility has started to lift, which usually precedes a fast, violent equity pullback. Active prep this week to swing-trade volatility, possibly with leverage; trigger will land in Discord.
Key stock analysis
- S&P 500 — at PoC with absorption of shorts; short-term bounce is on, but the bigger trade is watching the upper green box on any new high for absorption of longs as the topping region.
- Russell 2000 — valuation in the red / expensive Sharpe-ratio zone; 15–20% downside air pocket back to earlier-year lows. Be quick on small caps — get in, manage, move stop to entry.
- Microsoft — close to value-area-low / green buy region; already 50% allocated under PoC, scaling the rest deeper. Daily bullish divergence + Sharpe in the blue attractive zone; last time produced a clean relief rally.
- Mastercard — new long opened in pre-market this morning; stop already at entry. Weekly momentum diverting + shorts absorbed on lower time frames. 100% historical win rate longing in July — on the watchlist for the month.
- Defensives (McDonald's) — held through the drawdown; capital-rotation destination as the VIX expands through the midterm-year window.
Bitcoin and crypto
- Ethereum — structurally undervalued. ETH val multi-model fair value (after stripping the broken / market-irrelevant models) sits around $3,300–$4,400; price is meaningfully below. Currently at PoC of the higher-time-frame volume profile with heavy historical volume. Wolfpack ID rolling up toward green; quick wicks under PoC possible but a sustained break of value-area-low is unlikely. ~100% upside just mean-reverting to value-area-high; the upper fair-value band and a $10K target come after that.
- Bitcoin — in the green-box bottoming region flagged at the start of this bear market. Weekly Wolfpack ID already printing a bullish divergence; Market Cipher 5B is shaping up for the same — last seen at the prior bear-market low. Accumulation zone, not chase zone.
- MicroStrategy — STRC reclaiming $100 is the make-or-break level; estimated 70–80% probability it eventually reps. Small speculative long on (21% to $100 + ~11% dividend). Not adding more — daily lower lows + further dilution risk to save STRC. Prefer Coinbase and Bitmine for amplified BTC beta (Bitmine has the cleaner balance sheet and is income-producing).
Astrology and space
- Not covered in this week's video.
Positioning (as stated)
- New this week — Mastercard long (pre-market entry today, stop at entry).
- Speculative — small MSTR long (21% to $100 + ~11% div, 70–80% probability of STRC repping $100).
- Defensives held — McDonald's, held through the drawdown for the midterm-year decline window.
- Half-sized accumulation — Microsoft (50% under PoC, scaling deeper into the green box / lower).
- Crypto accumulation lane — preference for Coinbase and Bitmine over more MSTR for amplified BTC exposure.
Key takeaways
- The S&P's eventual top is the trade — watch the upper green box for absorption of longs on any push to a new high. Commercials are already net short.
- Midterm-year seasonality + VIX regime change + dollar smart-money divergence all point the same way: rotate to defensives and start building volatility hedges.
- Be quick on small-cap longs (Russell 2000 frothy); the asymmetry no longer favours holding them through.
- Crypto is the contra-trade: ETH and BTC are in accumulation zones with multi-model undervaluation. ETH offers ~100% just to value-area-high.
Summary of the weekly members video for educational purposes only. Not financial advice, not a recommendation, and not a trade signal. Past analysis is not indicative of future results.