Prior week — call accuracy
- Correct — Marked these caution windows at the start of the year (Mercury retrograde); the trend has been down since.
- In play — Today the S&P gapped down, then a Trump ceasefire tweet; the open question is a V-shape, a range, or a Liberation-Day-style relief-then-deeper-dump.
Macro and the week ahead
- Daily bullish divergence with Wolf Pack turning; a close above the high-volume-node edge would be a bullish engulfing toward POC, while a rejection sends it to value-area-low next.
- The Strait of Hormuz reopening is the key for risk assets (inflation fears versus rate cuts); base case the conflict ends this month — the media inflation panic echoes Liberation Day.
- Valuation tool: gold valuation cheap; both gold and bond resetting is rare (last seen at the COVID 'great reset'). COT: non-commercials starting to buy.
- Base case still wants a value-area-low test before confirming the low.
Key stock analysis
- Scaling into betas at value-area-low (spot, no leverage) — Robinhood (65%, 3.25R, ~100% to highs), Meta (started), Amazon (~cost basis), Microsoft (valuation attractive).
- Pennies, sized-for-zero — Serve Robotics (fully allocated), Orbs ($1, '50x or zero', an OpenAI-partnership thesis), XPEV (a strict buy zone under $10).
- Holds Coinbase (doubled down, ~+50% to highs) and Bitmine (now the main day-trading instrument).
Bitcoin and crypto
- Bitcoin — the standout: COT commercials net long for the FIRST time this entire bear market (after last week's regulatory clarity), the strongest signal yet that the bottom is near; momentum starting to turn, possibly one more textbook lower high first.
- Ethereum — deeply undervalued (~170% below the ETHval ~$6,000 composite); fundamentals strong (L2s, surging stablecoin volume, institutional adoption); Bitmine outperforms ETH (~+260% to highs, a ~20% MNAV 'Tom Lee premium', plus future stablecoin / Mr Beast optionality).
- Bitcoin outperforming gold from historically cheap levels; oil pulling back.
Astrology and space
- Covered — the Mercury-retrograde caution windows; astrology is layered in only when it confluences with momentum, order flow and the volume profile.
Positioning (as stated)
- Betas at value-area-low — Robinhood (65%), Meta, Amazon, Microsoft; pennies Serve Robotics (full), Orbs, XPEV; Coinbase and Bitmine.
- Bitcoin (a full but small position) and Ethereum. Spot, no leverage.
Key takeaways
- A ceasefire tweet could V-shape the S&P, but base case still wants a value-area-low test — scale into betas on weakness, spot only.
- Strongest crypto bottom signal yet: COT commercials net long for the first time this bear market.
- Accumulate BTC/ETH and crypto stocks (Coinbase, Bitmine); Ethereum is deeply undervalued.
- Summer rally window: late-April to early-August.
Summary of the weekly members video for educational purposes only. Not financial advice, not a recommendation, and not a trade signal. Past analysis is not indicative of future results.