Macro and the week ahead
- The last week of August can still be bullish; September likely a retracement (institutions offline, seasonality). The market is confident on a September cut, ~50% pricing a double and possibly a triple this year — Oct/Nov/Dec likely bullish (Jackson Hole was a massive pivot). Good time to be risk-on (not 100% cash); DCA into positions.
- Macro analog: post-COVID (the VIX spike) — not the same money printing, but rate cuts + all the COVID-printed cash still sloshing + a gamified/retail-heavy market = more aggressive upside volatility ('the most hated rally').
Key stock analysis
- Bitmine the favourite small-cap bet — a beautiful 4h trigger wave, money flow up, RSIs gapped → baked in to rotate VAL→VAH (+34% min); fully allocated (+200% if ETH doubles). MSTR — waiting for a Wolf Pack green dot in September to add full size (MNAV 1.56; Strategy lowered its MNAV threshold = more support; +11% to PC, +21% to VAH).
- Tesla — add on a pullback (anchored VWAP ~320, naked PC ~307, sub-300 = buy with leverage). ETH — a VWAP trigger wave could take out the ATH this week. The Russell 2000 is prime to break out (penny-stock / SPAC season — Chamath).
Bitcoin and crypto
- 3-day bearish divergences (big + local), RSIs overbought = historically resistance — but money flow still pushing up → likely a 'hidden correction' (a momentum reset while price ranges), not a bear. The last bear was a rate-HIKING cycle (the opposite now) → Bitcoin should grind up like the Nasdaq.
- Know when to pivot — retail is overly bearish (COT: retail net short, commercials ticking up / flatlining → likely to curve up). The best buys are during the Aug/Sept fear (front-run the COT green cross); like last year (Aug/Sept selling → October institutions buying).
Astrology and space
- Covered — a total lunar eclipse in September is the wild card (creates fear/uncertainty); maybe a ~10% S&P pullback (the green box = the buy-with-leverage zone), surprised if bigger.
Positioning (as stated)
- Risk-on, DCA spot in September, delever + hold cash to buy the dip; fully in Bitmine; MSTR (add full size on a Wolf Pack green); Tesla (add at the anchored VWAP / 307 / sub-300 with leverage); load leverage + small caps after September.
Key takeaways
- September likely a retracement (institutions offline, seasonality, a total lunar eclipse — maybe ~10% S&P, the green box = the buy-with-leverage zone) but Oct/Nov/Dec likely bullish; rate cuts pricing in (double/triple, the post-Jackson-Hole pivot) = stay risk-on, DCA spot, delever + hold cash, load leverage after September.
- Bitcoin a 'hidden correction' not a bear (a rate-cutting cycle; retail overly bearish, commercials ticking up — best buys during the Aug/Sept fear).
- Bitmine the favourite small-cap bet (+34% min, +200% if ETH doubles); MSTR add on a Wolf Pack green (+11–21%); ETH could break its ATH this week; the Russell 2000 prime to break out (penny-stock / SPAC season).
Summary of the weekly members video for educational purposes only. Not financial advice, not a recommendation, and not a trade signal. Past analysis is not indicative of future results.