Prior week — call accuracy
- Correct — The S&P green-box resistance call (the 50%/618 Fib extension) hit; after a 7-month bull run, one red month is statistically likely. Worst-case pullback ~-10% to the anchored VWAP (~6,200) — not a 20% correction.
- Bitcoin's push-then-pullback (his bear case) came close to but not into the green box; the valuation tool's sell signal had flagged the early-October dip.
Macro and the week ahead
- Valuation expensive vs gold/bonds, but the China-US truce eases geopolitical risk; several analysts call for a gold pullback → Bitcoin (digital gold) gets its spotlight (they offset by ~60 days). The Fed cut, with ~60% odds of a December cut.
- The key thesis: the Fed is ENDING quantitative tightening = step one toward QE — the historical analog is end-QT → a rally for a quarter → then a seasonal black-swan (COVID / Liberation Day). 'Only halfway through this bull run.' Bitcoin went sideways when QT ended pre-institutionally, but now it should behave like Tesla (which broke out) — 'as long as Tesla goes up, Bitcoin likely goes up'.
- Russell 2000 a proxy for altcoins/ETH/Bitmine (rate cuts help capital-hungry small caps); a ~7% pullback to the Fib golden pocket would still be bullish.
Key stock analysis
- MicroStrategy — the high-conviction asset-backed compounder: the 2-hour earnings call was very bullish (convertible debt $6.2B→$2B, raising via STRC '10% Bitcoin bank account', B- → a path to A+ = 11x capital access, possible S&P 500 add in 2026); green box = +80–100% from PC (3R+). Bitmine — active at POC, add 35% at VAL ~$40-41; MNAV 1.2.
- Meta highest conviction (buy the earnings dip below the Fib golden pocket); Tesla wants a post-Optimus dip; Google missed (huge imbalance) — wait for the Fib-golden-pocket green box; AMD not touching (waiting for the gap to fill). IPO lesson (Intelligent Investor): IPOs overvalued ~60% and most stocks trend to zero — stick to quality (AppLovin/Snowflake broke above IPO price = the exceptions; Unity/UiPath the cautionary tales).
Bitcoin and crypto
- A weekly bearish divergence is playing out (momentum about to go negative) but money flow is still good and the weekly VWAP has risen 3 weeks → maybe a tight trigger wave. A rare 3-day bullish divergence (first since the low) but choppy. Wolf Pack (Heikin-Ashi) suggests down-then-up → a push then a swing back to test ~$100k/POC/anchored VWAP = the real support test; a break there = bear, until then assume uptrend.
- TA target ~-10% Bitcoin; Bitcoin dominance resurging → ETH pulls back more (toward ~$3,000 / -20% if BTC -10%). Nothing blow-off until the shutdown ends (2nd half of month) — use first-half pushes to take profits. Next year: recessionary cuts ≠ risk-on if earnings miss (a midterm-year bear risk).
Astrology and space
- Covered — November financial astrology is bearish; the Mercury retrograde (into early December) historically has Bitcoin stall/range/pull back between retrogrades (~70%). Use astrology for sentiment-pivot timing (energy as ocean waves, not exact dates) — expect extreme fear in November.
Positioning (as stated)
- Skin-in-the-game plus cash on hand; Bitmine active (add at VAL); Coinbase 50%; MicroStrategy at PC (held, bullish fundamentals); Meta high conviction; cash parked in STRC for the midterm-year dip; mostly Mag7 + high-conviction betas.
Key takeaways
- After a 7-month bull run, expect a red month / sideways — worst case ~-10% to the anchored VWAP (~6,200), not a 20% correction; valuation expensive but the Fed ending QT = early-stage QE ('only halfway through the bull run').
- Bitcoin: a weekly bearish divergence playing out — likely a push then a swing back to test ~$100k/POC (the real support test); ~-10% target, ETH -20% (dominance resurging); not a confirmed bear until POC breaks. Mercury retrograde → expect a stall / extreme fear in November.
- MicroStrategy the high-conviction asset-backed compounder (debt down, STRC raising, a path to A+/S&P 500); Meta highest-conviction Mag7; stick to quality over hyped IPOs.
Summary of the weekly members video for educational purposes only. Not financial advice, not a recommendation, and not a trade signal. Past analysis is not indicative of future results.