Prior week — call accuracy
- Correct — The S&P Fib-236-extension resistance call hit (a minor level, not a top); likely a new ATH this week → a grind to higher Fib extensions ahead of September (where seasonality + a total lunar eclipse bring greater resistance).
- Mercury retrograde (ending today/tomorrow) drove consolidation; once it ends, markets likely move higher (Coinbase is highly correlated with Mercury-retrograde pullbacks).
Macro and the week ahead
- S&P poised for a new high; valuation not overvalued vs bonds/gold (equities still hot); labour weakness → September rate cuts = a perfect time to be risk-on. CVD shows uptrend exhaustion at the Fib level then absorption of shorts → a squeeze up likely (too many premature August shorts).
- August stance: still bullish but 50% size, cash-heavy (the total-lunar-eclipse risk in the 2nd half); no leverage in September unless a 10%+ correction.
Key stock analysis
- Bitmine introduced as 'the MicroStrategy of Ethereum' (Tom Lee) — the origin of the thesis: a levered ETH bet that can trade ~4x NAV (the Sailor playbook); watched it at $4 / a 30x but didn't pull the trigger; #1 September watchlist, wants a pullback near NAV (~$30).
- Apple — the AI catalyst landed (Tim Cook: deploy capital / buy AI companies); broke the line in the sand, P/E 33→ possibly 50; trade the 10-min, +13–14% to the ATH. Tesla (a range until key levels break; sold the leverage + half the spot at VAH). Microsoft ('Jesus take the wheel' trend-continuation). Risky next-wave bets: RGTI (quantum, buy ~$6), NeuroPace/NPCE (a Neuralink competitor 'hidden gem'), Circle (earnings).
Bitcoin and crypto
- Bitcoin at PC, target VAH ~just under $120k (a 3-day green dot → could break to new highs); Fib extensions: major resistance ~$130k, ultimate cycle resistance ~$140k (institutions respect Fib levels).
- Ethereum swept its lows (back to the Sept-2023 lows — he'd sold it as a 'broken chart', no regret) and is now showing good structure (ATH only ~15% away). Wait for a golden-pocket retrace (~$3,200–3,700) to enter; the preferred play is then to DCA into Bitmine (wants a MicroStrategy-style blow-off top; eventually leveraged Bitmine ETFs = the next evolution of the MSTR-ETF playbook).
Astrology and space
- Covered — Mercury retrograde ending (relief → markets up); a total lunar eclipse in September is the key risk.
Positioning (as stated)
- Bullish but 50% size, cash-heavy in August; no leverage until a 10%+ correction / after September; Tesla (spot, sold half + the leverage); Microsoft (multiple longs, some leverage); watching Apple / Netflix / Coinbase + risky Bitmine / RGTI / NPCE / Circle; Bitmine the #1 September watchlist (wants ~NAV $30).
Key takeaways
- S&P poised for a new high (valuation fine, money flow thick, absorption of shorts → a squeeze; Mercury retrograde ending = relief) — but trade August at 50% size / cash-heavy and no leverage in September (a total lunar eclipse; the buy-the-dip-on-a-10%-correction setup).
- Bitcoin target VAH ~$120k → Fib resistance ~$130k, ultimate ~$140k. ETH swept its lows and shows good structure (ATH ~15% away) — wait for a golden-pocket retrace (~$3,200–3,700), then the preferred play is DCA into Bitmine (the 'MicroStrategy of Ethereum', Tom Lee — a levered ETH bet, ~4x NAV potential; the next MSTR-ETF-style evolution).
- Apple's AI catalyst landed (trade the 10-min, +13–14% to the ATH); Microsoft / Tesla the active trades; RGTI / NeuroPace the risky next-wave bets.
Summary of the weekly members video for educational purposes only. Not financial advice, not a recommendation, and not a trade signal. Past analysis is not indicative of future results.