Prior week — call accuracy
- Correct — Called a relief rally (down to value-area-low, up into the moving average as resistance); a ~10% pullback so far and holding up well.
- Deliberately didn't call a full rally because, unlike Liberation Day, there were no trapped shorts on the daily CVD.
Macro and the week ahead
- S&P resilient despite Strait-of-Hormuz and global inflation fears — an echo of the (unfounded) Liberation-Day inflation scare; listen to the charts, not the media.
- Base case: a retest of value-area-low or lower (another ~8–12%, possibly fast) into the final astrological window (Mercury retrograde now ended); one Trump ceasefire tweet could flip it bullish.
- Valuation tool: gold and bond valuations had a rare, deep reset near Liberation-Day lows — expect major support / a higher low.
- COT: large speculators aggressively buying the dip, commercials neutral, retail trimming but still long. Best trading window late-April to early-August.
Key stock analysis
- Bought the dip — Microsoft, Robinhood, Serve Robotics, Orbs (speculative), Meta and Amazon (willing to add lower); still holding Coinbase and Oracle.
Bitcoin and crypto
- Bitcoin — commercials aggressively buying the dip as retail go net short (a historically bullish, shallow-pullback setup); a 3-day bullish divergence confirmed; CVD shows shorts absorbed at POC, risk/reward over 5R. Targets value-area-high (+25%), then +46%, with $100k summer resistance; a Q4 / Oct–Nov second low still possible.
- Worth being a Bitcoin bull, not a bear — a shallow bear market with strong upside risk/reward (spot, no leverage).
- Ethereum — bottoms earlier than BTC and it's ETH's turn to outperform (treasuries, politics, banks now pro-ETH); ETHval fair value ~$4,600 (undervalued ~120%); a weekly green dot points to value-area-high (+36%), then fair value / a new all-time high ahead of Bitcoin.
- Started a speculative PEPE position (the largest ETH-chain meme) to ride an ETH run.
Astrology and space
- Covered — Mercury retrograde has ended; a final astrological window is flagged as the likely capitulation/timing, with late-April to August the best trading stretch.
Positioning (as stated)
- Dip buys — Microsoft, Robinhood, Serve Robotics, Orbs, Meta, Amazon, plus Coinbase and Oracle held; Bitcoin and Ethereum spot; started PEPE.
Key takeaways
- ~10% pullback and resilient — base case is a retest of value-area-low or a bit lower into the astrology window, then the year's best trading stretch (late-April to August).
- The deep valuation reset is major support.
- Be a crypto bull — accumulate BTC/ETH spot, with Ethereum the likely outperformer.
- Bought the dip across Mag7 and betas.
Summary of the weekly members video for educational purposes only. Not financial advice, not a recommendation, and not a trade signal. Past analysis is not indicative of future results.