Prior week — call accuracy
- Correct — Last week's bearish S&P call played out (trending down from Monday): uptrend exhaustion on CVD at the Fib-618 extension / $7,000 / green-box resistance.
- Correct — Bitcoin's relief-rally-to-POC call and Copart (the inverse-Mag7 hedge) both played out.
Macro and the week ahead
- Per the year roadmap, no major pullback was expected until the 'confusion' window — but a broken EMA ribbon and a Market Cipher A short signal suggest the start of a deeper pullback now (still just uptrend exhaustion, so a bounce at the anchored VWAP is possible if buyers show aggression).
- COT: commercials still net short (slowly coming in), retail a slight uptick — the market could still push higher. The gold-valuation pullback hints at a local bottom soon; buy the dip with leverage when the valuation resets in the green-line window.
- Deeper pullback expected H2 (Tom Lee / Fundstrat: rally, give it back, then a Q4 high). RSI triple-top divergence.
Key stock analysis
- Light on equities here. Meta — trimmed (took a 7% loss), now 50% size; expects a drop to the green box (possibly -40%), a 10-year hold.
- Google — buy ~$250 (-24%), stop below the EMA ribbons. Microsoft — 'doomed' / rangebound, looks like a value-migration lower; will start a leverage long down there. Tesla — wants the green-box retest; staying away.
- Copart — the inverse-Mag7 long hedge, turning up.
Bitcoin and crypto
- Concern — COT shows retail leaving and commercials trimming as price hit POC, so this looks like only a relief rally; the 3-day VWAP's lower highs point to a red dot (one more clip down). A big player is using strength as exit liquidity.
- Pullback targets: BTC through the low-volume-node to ~$70k (the last-cycle-high support flip; RR ~2.44R), worst case ~$50k (irrational); ETH to POC / value-area-low (~-30%).
- Ethereum the accumulate — the ETH/BTC pair is turning (a weekly money-flow cross historically = ~+200%/yr outperformance).
Astrology and space
- Covered — the 'confusion' windows / green lines from the year roadmap frame the expected pullback timing.
Positioning (as stated)
- Light on equities (no leverage); Meta 50% (trimmed); Copart the inverse-Mag7 hedge; spot BTC/ETH expecting one more dip; watching Google ~$250, Microsoft (leverage on the dip), Tesla.
Key takeaways
- S&P breaking down (uptrend exhaustion, Market Cipher A short) — likely the start of a deeper pullback, though a bounce at the anchored VWAP is possible; stay light.
- Crypto relief rally likely over (commercials trimming, retail out) — expect one more dip (BTC ~$70k, ETH to value-area-low); Ethereum the outperformer to accumulate.
- Buy zones: Google ~$250, Microsoft (leverage on the dip), Meta green box; Copart the inverse-Mag7 hedge.
Summary of the weekly members video for educational purposes only. Not financial advice, not a recommendation, and not a trade signal. Past analysis is not indicative of future results.