Prior week — call accuracy
- Correct — November was the predicted red month (breaking 7 green months); the Meta move to the green box delivered about half so far. Low liquidity made indicators less reliable and manipulation more likely (seen on Bitcoin).
- Built a trend-following script for Bitmine (community-originated, then tweaked) — a low win rate but profitable through the hard tape (backtested ~+443% on Bitmine since July); will run it with discretion (psychology is the bottleneck; the MTS swing method stays the high-win-rate, 70–80%, approach he shares).
Macro and the week ahead
- S&P money flow falling but still thick (vs Liberation Day 'skipping rocks'), a hidden bullish divergence, and healthy hourly order flow → could push higher and break 7,000 — but the daily VWAP's lower highs warn of a stall; a December rate cut is now expected (weak labour + inflation data); Powell speaks Monday.
- Valuation: the gold valuation moved up → equities attractive again. Several rhythm-change scenarios around the anchored VWAP; a big rotation to the lower band usually only comes after the Fib-1 extension (so higher first). COT (S&P): smart money started buying as retail sold (a bullish tell) — watch if it becomes a trend.
- Not a recession: earnings good, labour weakness is AI productivity (not contraction), GDP still rising — as long as GDP doesn't roll over, expect a 2020-style 'liquidity absorbs the dip', not 2008.
Key stock analysis
- Coinbase — in the shifted-down green box, wicked up; waiting for one more sweep (50% skin in). Xpeng — a Chinese-EV IPO, nibbled 10% (IPO price = resistance; rotational; add at PC/VAL). Oracle — momentum up, quality, rotational higher.
- MicroStrategy — capitulation, leading the Bitcoin selloff (Tom Lee: watch MSTR turning up to time Bitcoin); sell covered calls on relief rallies, cash-secured puts on dips. Plus a position-sizing lecture (size up only at strong support).
Bitcoin and crypto
- COT: smart money has been exiting since the Trump-pump double-top; now both retail and commercials are net short, with only trend-following large specs net long → as the trendline broke, expect them to sell too. Watch the COT commercial (gray) line for a reversal — last cycle, that reversal front-ran an overnight step-up pump (advance warning).
- Momentum aggressively down → a relief rally then likely another sweep lower (target ~$74k); reclaimed the anchored-VWAP outer band (good), but the 3-day shows no bullish divergence yet. $100k = psychological resistance; a 2-week hidden bullish divergence + a December uptick in global liquidity are mildly supportive. Not a deep bear (institutional cycle, diminishing pullbacks).
- Ethereum — wicked the POC high-volume-node in its multi-cycle range; a potential higher low if money flow comes in. ETH has better catalysts than Bitcoin (institutions onchain; the Trump pump was Bitcoin's ultimate catalyst) — the volatile-pump play, Bitmine the beta.
Astrology and space
- Barely covered — analysis was order-flow-, COT- and macro-led this week.
Positioning (as stated)
- Meta (recovering toward the green box); Bitmine (resuming via the trend-following script + discretion); MicroStrategy (covered calls); Coinbase 50%; Xpeng 10% nibble; Oracle (watching); spot BTC/ETH accumulate in fair value.
Key takeaways
- November was the predicted red month — low liquidity, manipulation, be patient. S&P money flow falling but thick + healthy order flow + a likely December rate cut → could break 7,000, but watch the daily VWAP lower highs and the seasonal window.
- Bitcoin: relief rally then likely one more sweep to ~$74k; watch the COT commercial line for the reversal that front-runs the next pump; not a deep bear (no recession, GDP rising).
- Ethereum the better-catalyst play (Bitmine the beta); MicroStrategy the Bitcoin-uptrend tell. Accumulate quality in fair value and size correctly.
Summary of the weekly members video for educational purposes only. Not financial advice, not a recommendation, and not a trade signal. Past analysis is not indicative of future results.