Year in review — 2025
- The final game plan of 2025 — a low-volume holiday week (not trading much; like the government-shutdown period, manipulation is higher and indicators less reliable), so a review rather than fresh calls.
- 2025 was a 'nine completion year' that served up every condition: an easy January rotation (doubled the account on leverage), Feb–March seasonal weakness, the Liberation Day black-swan reset (a generational dip-buy, VIX at COVID levels), then 'the most hated rally' (an imbalance — hedge funds' worst year in 30 years), then a government-shutdown stall (the worst crypto liquidation since Nov 2022; a rotation into value / platinum / palladium).
The five key lessons
- Adaptability — identify the condition (safe rotation / big reset / imbalance) and match it: leverage and size up only on resets, trade with the trend and scale down in an imbalance.
- Keep a concentrated watchlist (~10 names) — futures, top-tier quality, Mag7 + MicroStrategy, midcaps (Bitmine / Robinhood / Reddit), and a few risky plays.
- Fundamentals drive conviction — the COT report (commercials vs retail) plus seasonality set position size, not financial-statement analysis.
- Government shutdown = go risk-off (the year's one big blunder — leaned on 'shutdowns are usually bullish' and gave back P&L); next time, step aside.
- It paid to stay bullish — 'more money is lost waiting for the pullback than in the pullback'; accept a lower win rate when holding bullish in tough tape. Order flow is king (adding Bookmap in 2026).
Watchlist and instruments
- Meta — still in drawdown, DCA'd down, held as a position trade. Google — the standout DCA-and-hold of the year.
- Bitmine / MicroStrategy — the amplified Ethereum / Bitcoin vehicles; held without liquidation risk, traded actively (currently a ~30% win rate / 1.5 profit factor in tough tape).
Bitcoin and crypto
- Crypto had a rough back half (the shutdown liquidation), but the long-term bias holds — Bitcoin is the best liquidity sponge.
- Ethereum super-cycle thesis (Tom Lee) — a call that ETH flips Bitcoin within nine years; Bitmine the long-term vehicle, held without leverage.
Astrology and numerology
- 2025 was a numerology nine 'completion' year (every condition, the hardest to trade); 2026 is a numerology one year — a new 9-year era and a 'boot-camp' midterm year (the toughest in the 4-year cycle).
Positioning (as stated)
- Holiday wind-down — barely trading; Meta (drawdown, DCA'd, a position trade); Bitmine / MicroStrategy held and actively traded; a concentrated watchlist into 2026.
Key takeaways
- 2025 was a 'completion year' with every market condition — adaptability was everything; the government-shutdown stall was the one miss (the lesson: risk-off next time).
- It paid to stay bullish (US late-cycle, not recession); win with a concentrated watchlist + COT + seasonality + order flow.
- 2026 is the hard numerology-one / midterm year — prepare for chop. Ethereum super-cycle / Bitmine the long-term vehicle.
Summary of the weekly members video for educational purposes only. Not financial advice, not a recommendation, and not a trade signal. Past analysis is not indicative of future results.