Prior week — call accuracy
- Consistent — Still framing year-end as a low-volume, low-conviction tape where hedge funds (after a bad year) are unlikely to chase the top and more likely to push prices lower into Christmas.
- Two game plans left of 2025.
Macro and the week ahead
- S&P rangebound at highs and only 'fair value' on the valuation tool (gold valuation selling off but not yet cheap) — not a great buy here; rate easing continues (1–2 cuts priced for 2026, none for 2027 despite a new dovish Fed chair in Q2).
- CVD pinching down (year-end de-risking) — bias is for a pullback: a seasonal Feb–May correction of ~8% (to the anchored VWAP) or ~15% (a full rotation) = the buy-the-dip zone; long-bias longer-term, with the long-term trendline as strong support (it held through the rate-hiking cycle and Liberation Day).
Key stock analysis
- Buy zones at value-area-low: Nvidia (a 'super-G' — leverage if it dumps), AMD (the green box at POC/VAL), Microsoft (at VAL, only 60% allocated — 40% dry powder to DCA), Robinhood (a beta with a short signal — wait for timing), Reddit (holding up well = bullish into 2026).
- Copart — the inverse-Mag7 hedge (weekly RSI oversold-green; rotational).
Bitcoin and crypto
- A simple rule (buy when money flow is red, sell when it diverges down) would have returned ~+285% on spot this year. Weekly momentum / riverbank turning down → money flow likely crossing red = bear market.
- Per Ben Cowen, this bear should be shallow (not a rate-hiking-cycle bear): a rational low around the green box ~$73–74k (value-area-high edge), a black-swan wick toward the anchored VWAP / ~$50k. COT: commercials accumulated the last bear low while retail topped it ('consensus is overcrowded'); watch whether commercials reduce shorts in Dec/Jan — accumulate as retail capitulates (a redistribution from dumb to smart money).
- Ethereum the multi-year flip-Bitcoin play (a numerology-one new era; commercials stacking ETH like Bitcoin in 2021 = the tell) — traded via Bitmine (a passive swing long for now).
Astrology and space
- Covered — 2026 is a numerology one year (a new 9-year era; the last numerology-one was when he first got into Bitcoin).
Positioning (as stated)
- Long-bias but expecting a pullback; Bitmine a passive swing (no active position); Microsoft 60%; watchlist buy zones set; Copart the inverse-Mag7 hedge.
Key takeaways
- S&P at fair value and rangebound — expect a seasonal pullback (Feb–May, -8% to -15%) = the buy-the-dip zone; long-bias longer-term, the long-term trendline strong support.
- Bitcoin likely one more dip to ~$73–74k (the rational bear low; black-swan ~$50k) — accumulate as retail capitulates (the COT commercial line is the tell).
- Buy zones at value-area-low: Nvidia / AMD / Microsoft / Robinhood / Reddit; Copart the inverse-Mag7 hedge. Ethereum the multi-year flip-Bitcoin play (Bitmine the vehicle).
Summary of the weekly members video for educational purposes only. Not financial advice, not a recommendation, and not a trade signal. Past analysis is not indicative of future results.