Prior week — call accuracy
- Correct — Two weeks prior flagged the green-box resistance, then flipped bullish on big-tech earnings; the S&P delivered the ~4% move and is now less than 1% from the 1-Fibonacci extension.
- Took profit — Closed the Tesla long at +7% ('when in doubt, cash out').
Macro and the week ahead
- The 1-Fibonacci extension is major resistance — possibly the high for the year; mid-term seasonality argues for sell-in-May into the elections.
- Biggest risk — incoming Fed chair Kevin Warsh may shrink the balance sheet (a drag on net global liquidity) without rate cuts; a policy pivot that historically can end bull runs, though a fragile system likely limits it to a short-term pullback.
- Market is pricing neutral on cuts/hikes; expect it to 'test' the new chair with some de-risking. S&P only ~7% YTD — solid for a mid-term year; likely stagnates here.
Key stock analysis
- S&P 500 — at the 1-Fibonacci extension; ~1% more upside then a likely pullback-in-time; small caps (Russell) the most vulnerable.
- Tesla — front-ran the pullback; took the long off at +7%.
- Stance — lock in profits, reduce size, don't let greed take over.
Bitcoin and crypto
- Concern — COT commercials' interest dropped sharply (net buyers since mid-March, now neutral); they may be sensing something (Clarity Act / quantum / Fed-chair risk).
- Hedge — doubled the MicroStrategy hedge short; targets POC (~20% down unleveraged), with some analysts eyeing MSTR $55.
- Bigger picture — higher-timeframe momentum/money flow stay positive, so the bear low is likely in; holds core Bitcoin spot (multi-year), targeting ~$165k then ~$191k in 2027–28.
- Coinbase +4%; the Clarity Act markup is Thursday and the odds of signing spiked to ~74%.
Astrology and space
- Not covered in this week's video.
Positioning (as stated)
- Core Bitcoin held as a multi-year spot position; doubled the MicroStrategy hedge short; Coinbase; took the Tesla profit.
- De-risking and locking in profits.
Key takeaways
- S&P at major resistance (possible yearly high) — lock profits and cut size.
- The biggest risk is the new Fed chair and balance-sheet policy.
- Crypto bear low likely in, but hedged via MicroStrategy for a near-term fade.
- Hold core Bitcoin for the multi-year move.
Summary of the weekly members video for educational purposes only. Not financial advice, not a recommendation, and not a trade signal. Past analysis is not indicative of future results.