Prior week — call accuracy
- Correct — Last week's long-bias on the S&P played out (it kept pushing up): momentum up, no CVD uptrend exhaustion. The bullish Meta call also worked (gap-down was a blessing — bought more).
- Opened a new Microsoft position (the OpenAI proxy) at value-area-low.
Macro and the week ahead
- December bias is not very bullish — likely a stall: any push up needs to happen by mid-December and hinges on Wednesday's FOMC (an ~86% probability of a rate cut priced in — monetary policy, not valuation, is the driver). Possible buy-the-rumour / sell-the-news.
- Valuation tool healthy enough for equities to drift up; the gold valuation making lower highs is a longer-term drag to watch. COT: the all-time high was retail-driven (retail most net-long, commercials trimming); non-commercials (trend-followers) are net short and may be forced to chase into year-end (Tom Lee's FOMO thesis).
- S&P daily money flow making lower highs but still thick; 3-day money flow very thick (unlike Liberation Day) — base case a push toward $7,000 this week if the cut lands, then a holiday lull. The Fib-1 extension is where a deeper retracement usually starts.
Key stock analysis
- Nvidia — ~14% off the high at POC, a hidden bullish divergence / Wolf Pack up; a forgiving aggressive buy. Meta — push to the green box (a passive swing). Google — extended/frothy but money flow still thick (one more leg likely into Jan/Feb). Apple — a failed value-area shift; wait for a reset (buy nearer POC).
- MicroStrategy — 'a Bitcoin property': not adding, selling options for income, will DCA toward a ~$300 cost basis; most dilution (for the STRC dividend) is behind it. Bitmine — technicals improving (cat eyes) but an angular momentum wave; expect a trigger wave / rotation, the explosive move in Q1.
Bitcoin and crypto
- A tight daily trigger wave as money flow falls — as flagged, only a relief rally; expect one more push down (didn't double the Coinbase position for this reason). The first 'blood diamond' in a long time (historically marks a local low after a pause).
- Bias long-term long; the base-case March high is the cycle-highs trendline (~$130k). Ultimate-low target ~$74k on an FTX-style capitulation = a 'legendary' leveraged entry; the energy-value oscillator is in the green (buy) zone. DCA now or, better, use the beta — Ethereum.
- Ethereum — a trigger wave down with RSI oversold; possible Santa-Claus rally teeing up Q1 outperformance; the multi-cycle accumulation (Tom Lee) is constructive. DCA Bitmine weekly via cash-secured puts; don't use leverage directly on ETH until the downtrend line is reclaimed.
Astrology and space
- Not covered this week — analysis was seasonality-, valuation- and order-flow-led.
Positioning (as stated)
- Meta (added, a passive swing); Microsoft new at VAL; Nvidia (aggressive buy at POC); MicroStrategy (income via options, DCA toward ~$300); Bitmine DCA weekly (cash-secured puts); spot BTC/ETH accumulate, expecting one more dip.
Key takeaways
- December likely stalls — a push to ~$7,000 is possible if Wednesday's rate cut lands, then a holiday lull; the cut is the swing factor (watch for buy-the-rumour/sell-the-news).
- Bitcoin: only a relief rally, expect one more push down; ultimate-low target ~$74k = a legendary leveraged entry; DCA now, or use Ethereum as the beta.
- Ethereum the Q1 outperformer (Bitmine the vehicle, DCA'd weekly); buy zones — Nvidia at POC, Meta the green box, Microsoft at VAL; MicroStrategy a long-term 'Bitcoin property' for income.
Summary of the weekly members video for educational purposes only. Not financial advice, not a recommendation, and not a trade signal. Past analysis is not indicative of future results.