Prior week — call accuracy
- Called and capitalised — was fully allocated for one of the fastest S&P rallies since the 1950s; now reads that speed as a warning, not a green light.
- Took profits — sold Meta (+20%+ from the green-box buy), plus Microsoft, Amazon and Robinhood dip-trades. 'When in doubt, cash out.'
Macro and the week ahead
- S&P at the Fibonacci 786 extreme with longs being absorbed; base case is a retest of POC (gaps to fill).
- Second presidential mid-term years average ~+21% (median ~+15%) and are 100% positive — the year should close green, but the seasonal dip runs sell-May into October.
- Valuation tool: bond valuation back to expensive (hence the absorption); COT commercials long while trend-followers take profits (expecting a turn).
Key stock analysis
- Took profits on Mag7 / betas (Meta, Microsoft, Amazon, Robinhood) at the extreme; will re-enter on a pullback to POC / value-area-high.
- Rally looks concentrated — Robinhood lagging its highs and Nvidia not at new highs, a possible weakness signal.
- Risky penny names (a Cerebras-type robotics name, XPEV) were the exception that didn't work.
Bitcoin and crypto
- Bitcoin — possible bear flag (Ben Cowen sees a lower high), so opened a small, 'sacrificial' MicroStrategy hedge short — but higher timeframes (weekly Wolf Pack green, 3-week trigger leading the monthly) give high conviction the bear low is in; holding spot.
- MicroStrategy decoupled +14% in a day (risk appetite returning); betas can bottom before Bitcoin.
- Ethereum — retail now net long futures with commercials long (positive), though VWAP lower highs hint at a possible higher low first.
Astrology and space
- Covered — the start-of-year reference levels were tied to the Mercury-retrograde window (now ended); financial astrology flags the next 'confusion' window around the midterms, leaving this period relatively clear for trading.
Positioning (as stated)
- Took profits across Mag7 and betas; holding Bitcoin and Ethereum spot; a small MicroStrategy hedge short.
- Cash-heavier, waiting to re-enter on a pullback.
Key takeaways
- S&P at the 786 extreme with longs absorbed — bank profits and wait for a pullback to POC / value-area-high.
- Mid-term year closes green but expect sell-May / summer chop then a year-end pickup.
- Crypto bear low likely in (3-day to monthly trigger) — hold spot, with a small MSTR hedge for the bear-flag risk.
- Lean on volume profile and order flow over subjective chart patterns.
Summary of the weekly members video for educational purposes only. Not financial advice, not a recommendation, and not a trade signal. Past analysis is not indicative of future results.