Prior week — call accuracy
- Correct — Flagged absorption of longs in real time on Thursday in Discord; the sharp Friday pullback from the green-box Fibonacci extension followed, with money flow and momentum already rolling over.
- Now watching — Shorts being absorbed at the value-area-high trendline on CVD intraday, which would argue for another push toward the highs.
Macro and the week ahead
- IPO supply — SpaceX IPO Friday plus other large IPOs and a Nasdaq rule change force rebalancing; capital rotating into new listings likely means selling elsewhere — short-term possibly positive, longer-term a headwind.
- Seasonality — mid-term years typically sell after May, and the second-half pullback is usually deeper than the first (a 10–20% S&P drawdown, potentially toward ~6,000).
- COT — commercials are the most long the S&P they've been all year while retail trims, a tension that could still carry price to new highs first.
- IPOs — not touching them; most list overvalued and only become interesting at a 40%+ discount.
Key stock analysis
- S&P 500 / Nasdaq — too expensive here; ~3–4% upside into the box isn't worth the deep downside risk. Uses the Sharpe-ratio tool (blue = attractive) — hourly for the index, 4-hour for large caps, 4-hour plus daily for smaller caps.
- SoFi — 50% position, laddering in; waiting for the Sharpe ratio to flash blue on a possible flush before sizing up.
- Meta — highest conviction; buy zone is the green box, another ~5–10% lower.
- Alibaba — 4-hour Sharpe in the attractive blue zone; wants a swing-failure entry near the anchored VWAP around $110–113.
- Defensives — Nike daily Sharpe the best in a long time (took a starter, scaling; 100%+ potential over time); McDonald's a buyback-plus-dividend hedge with Sharpe blue.
Bitcoin and crypto
- Bitcoin — the February low was taken out into the anchored VWAP + Fibonacci golden pocket + a large high-volume node; treats this as fair value (cost basis ~$68k; under $60k a fire sale). Watching for a textbook 3-day, then weekly, bullish divergence.
- Stance — moving along the risk curve from BTC into ETH (attractive risk/reward, BlackRock/tokenisation as a multi-year catalyst); Bitmine held as an ETH proxy. Spot only, no leverage yet.
- Frame — like the multi-year metals base: years of accumulation then a rotation higher; expects the same for BTC/ETH over the coming years.
Astrology and space
- Touched on briefly — upcoming astrological-event windows referenced as a timing layer for the expected deeper H2 pullback.
Positioning (as stated)
- Crypto — full Bitcoin, accumulating Ethereum, plus Coinbase and Bitmine.
- Stocks — SoFi 50%, a new starter in Nike; cash-heavy and patient, hunting dips on quality names rather than chasing expensive sectors.
Key takeaways
- Don't chase the S&P at the highs — be cash-heavy into mid-term seasonality and buy quality on pullbacks where the Sharpe ratio and value align.
- Best dip-buy candidates: Meta, Nike, McDonald's, Alibaba.
- Crypto bottoming — prefer Ethereum over Bitcoin; accumulate spot, avoid leverage.
- Avoid the IPO hype unless it discounts heavily.
Summary of the weekly members video for educational purposes only. Not financial advice, not a recommendation, and not a trade signal. Past analysis is not indicative of future results.