Prior week — call accuracy
- Correct — The S&P green-box resistance call hit to the tick, and the 'long volatility (VIX at 16) rather than short the S&P' call paid: the VIX long was +30% on Friday's crash, better than a short with no leverage needed.
- The S&P put in a short signal at the anchored-VWAP outer band (from the April low), ~-3% so far; he expects ~6–7% to the 200-day EMA = a healthy reset and the leverage-long-the-dip zone.
Macro and the week ahead
- Very bullish into year-end (Fundstrat: a September Fed cut → ~14% rally; even the median ~4% = S&P $7,000 / the 618 Fib). The rally was retail-driven (COT: hedge funds net short the whole way, caught offside) — sidelined money (parked in gold, +50% YTD) needs a ~6% dip to enter (6% ≈ the annual S&P average).
- Per Carson, this bull market is only +89% vs the ~191% average over 11 bull markets — 'not even halfway'; bull runs get bigger and longer (monetary debasement) but more volatile.
Position sizing (the centerpiece lesson)
- Tag every trade rotational or imbalance. Rotational (buying at an extreme of fair value for a move to the other extreme) = up to 100% allocation. Imbalance (above a prior ATH / breakout) = NEVER more than 50% — keep skin in the game, trail the stop, then DCA higher or scale in the rest if it rotates back.
- Grade setups A/B/C tier → A-tier 10–20%, B-tier ≤5%, C-tier ≤1%. Manage greed (the intermediate-trader trap); 'more money is lost waiting for the pullback than in the pullback'; favour two-way-door (survivable) over one-way-door (liquidation) decisions.
Bitcoin and crypto
- The largest crypto liquidation event in history (Friday night — Trump's Nov-1 China-tariff threat, exchanges failed, stop-losses pulled; Polymarket only 18% the tariffs land). Bitmine wicked sub-$48 → he doubled up. Lesson: don't keep funds on one exchange; prefer intelligent leverage (MSTR/Bitmine) over 100x.
- Bitcoin is on the 2nd spider line (3x respected resistance) with a 3-day bearish divergence — but not a cycle top (rate cuts, seasonality); US personal savings (his favourite chart) still low but rising → no crazy bear. Gold lags by ~60 days → a Bitcoin move up in November; green box +10–20% by January.
- MicroStrategy at an extreme of fair value (buying spot, not leveraged) — 'like buying Amazon in the dotcom bubble' (balance sheet improving even if price isn't); ETH swept VAH/3,500 in the liquidation, thesis intact (institutional flows).
Astrology and space
- Not covered this week — the analysis was TA-, COT- and position-sizing-led (only the ~60-day gold→Bitcoin lag noted).
Positioning (as stated)
- DCA spot (no tight stops, expecting a V-shaped recovery); cash from the AMD win (+40% overnight) to buy the dip; Bitmine doubled sub-$48; MicroStrategy spot; Hood 50%; Meta/Microsoft blue-chip parks; waiting for the ~6% S&P dip to add leverage longs.
Key takeaways
- S&P green-box resistance hit + the 'long-VIX over short' call paid (+30% on Friday's crash); expect a ~6–7% retrace to the anchored VWAP / 200-day = a healthy reset and the leverage-long-the-dip zone; very bullish year-end (Fundstrat +4–14%, 'not even halfway through the bull market').
- Crypto had the largest liquidation in history (Trump tariff threat, exchanges failed) — doubled Bitmine sub-$48; not a cycle top, Bitcoin green box +10–20% by January.
- The position-sizing framework: rotational = up to 100%, imbalance = max 50%, grade setups A/B/C (10–20 / ≤5 / ≤1%); 'more money is lost waiting for the pullback than in it'. MSTR/Bitmine the intelligent leverage; Meta/Microsoft the blue-chip parks.
Summary of the weekly members video for educational purposes only. Not financial advice, not a recommendation, and not a trade signal. Past analysis is not indicative of future results.