Prior week — call accuracy
- Correct — The standout Bitmine call (a pullback to its NAV ~$40, MNAV of 1) was a great accumulation: PC holders +33% in 23 days, value-area-low +52% in 15 days. The NAV has since moved up ~20% to ~$48–49; it trades ~1.2 MNAV → support ~$58–59 (VAH / 786).
Macro and the week ahead
- Valuation tool: gold in the expensive region, the bond line creeping up → a short signal expected soon (September seasonality). Bespoke: the S&P is extremely overbought (only 0.04% of trading days this overbought) → base case a pullback-in-time / sideways market; options expiration adds to that.
- The week's pop was pricing two more cuts (the Fed dot plot); Russell 2000 a new ATH (rotation into small caps) → 1998-style / dotcom-blowoff-top talk — but QE hasn't been deployed yet, so 'this market is different' (he leans bullish). COT: commercials still bullish, retail leaving, non-commercials flipped hard short again.
Key stock analysis
- MSTR the standout — a rare 3-day trigger wave off money-flow-crossing-red (last time Bitcoin went ~15x); the market calls it dead (a blow-off top before Bitcoin) but the structure is going up and VWAP has curved up since Jackson Hole. Target $600–700 (+74%); wants to trade it with leverage.
- Bitmine accumulation zone $48–59 (hard support $48–50). Nvidia a passive hold (could reach the 2024 highs, +43%).
Bitcoin and crypto
- Bitcoin is a liquidity sponge and M2 YoY growth has been declining (why it has lagged, gold outperforming YTD) — Fed easing should turn M2 up → BTC follows. Aggressively long → maybe sideways / liquidation wicks to ~$105–106 (the outer anchored-VWAP band, taking out 50x leverage); a 3-day trigger wave (bullish) vs a 3-day bearish divergence if VWAP curves down. Not a cycle top; October good for Bitcoin → +20% Q4 to ~$150k (RR from VAH still 2R).
- Ethereum is a 'hidden correction' — daily money flow falling but price holding = absorption (Bitmine / treasuries accumulating discreetly, e.g. via perpetual swaps; Tom Lee secretive to get liquidity). Don't short or sell — accumulate Bitmine (like MSTR back when technicals looked similar). Black-swan risk: a Japanese-yen / carry-trade unwind (like summer 2024).
Astrology and space
- Covered briefly — this year's numerology matches 1998, and the Benner cycle points to a dotcom-style local top in 2026.
Positioning (as stated)
- Risk-on but cautious (overbought / seasonal / opex); Bitmine accumulate ($48–59); MSTR accumulate (target $600–700, wants leverage); ETH accumulate (don't sell); Nvidia passive; light leverage.
Key takeaways
- The S&P is extremely overbought into September seasonality + options expiration → base case a pullback-in-time / sideways (the pop was pricing two more cuts); 1998 / dotcom-blow-off-top talk (Benner cycle, numerology) but 'this market is different' (QE not yet deployed) — stay risk-on, don't over-lever.
- Bitcoin maybe a liquidation wick to ~$105–106 (the outer anchored-VWAP band) then buyers in October → +20% Q4 to ~$150k (not a cycle top; M2 turning up).
- MSTR the standout (a rare 3-day trigger wave, target $600–700 / +74%); ETH a 'hidden correction' — treasuries absorbing the selling, accumulate Bitmine, don't sell. The yen carry trade the black-swan risk.
Summary of the weekly members video for educational purposes only. Not financial advice, not a recommendation, and not a trade signal. Past analysis is not indicative of future results.