The week's three catalysts
- Posted Monday pre-open (traveling) — 'maybe the most important trading week of the year' with three catalysts: (1) the historically worst two weeks of the year (2nd half of September) — but the first nine days were +~2%, a 64% probability the rest is positive; (2) the Fed cutting and signaling more (this cut + ~80% Oct + ~80% Dec); (3) quad witching (major opex) = high volatility, a great week to actively trade.
- COT: commercials flat (still net positive), retail stepped up, non-commercials making a higher low — wants that line to keep rising.
Macro and the week ahead
- Valuation not expensive vs bonds (good, continues with cuts); gold very expensive. S&P daily money flow lower highs + bearish divergences, RSIs overlapped overbought — but the aggressive momentum wave and a trending market can stay irrationally overbought; watch higher-timeframe money flow for the trend change.
- Rate cuts returning in September have only happened twice in history → very bullish into Q4 (don't fight the Fed; Trump pushing semi-annual reporting to delay labour weakness showing in earnings). A seasonal pullback (not yet seen) may be delayed to October. Won't add much leverage yet (the worst two weeks) but will on dips to set up Oct–Dec.
Key stock analysis
- Bitmine the in-play standout — 4h momentum + money flow positive, RSIs overlapped green (fuel); levels: outer band → VAH ~$61 → naked VWAP → naked PC ~$70 → then nothing till $100 (+8/14/28/86%). $100 is conservative by year-end even if ETH goes sideways (NAV via share dilution only, no debt — 'a league above MicroStrategy's execution'); the Tom-Lee institutional ETH era; will use leverage once leveraged ETFs launch.
- Coinbase (a beautiful 3-day trigger wave — rotation +18% to the outer band, +34% to the high). Tesla (love-hate; waiting for a retrace to take out naked PCs; Renko / anchored-VWAP-SD + CVD entries). Nvidia (bearish premarket, below 2SD — watching for a rejection + 10-min divergences to enter leverage into FOMC). Passive holds: Meta, Microsoft, MSTR.
Bitcoin and crypto
- Crypto exposure is via the treasuries — Bitmine the in-play chart (active + passive), accumulating ETH silently (<50% of target) without moving the price, so it should perform even if ETH pulls back; once ETH moves it should significantly outperform $100.
- ETH has looked 'broken' at points this cycle but is now in the Tom-Lee institutional era — a far more intelligent way to access it is via Bitmine (the NAV protection).
Astrology and space
- Not covered this week — catalyst- and seasonality-led.
Positioning (as stated)
- In profit in September (better than the flat he'd hoped for); no big leverage yet (the worst two weeks) but adding on dips for Q4; in-play Coinbase / Tesla / Bitmine; passive Meta / Microsoft / MSTR; eyeing an Nvidia leverage entry into FOMC.
Key takeaways
- The most important week of the year — three catalysts (the historically worst two weeks of September, the Fed cut + signaling, quad witching). Rate cuts returning in September (only twice in history) = very bullish into Q4; stay risk-on, add leverage only on dips.
- Bitmine the in-play standout ($100 conservative by year-end even if ETH is flat — NAV via dilution only, no debt, 'a league above MicroStrategy'; the Tom-Lee institutional ETH era; active + passive).
- Coinbase the trigger-wave rotation (+18–34%); Tesla / Nvidia the active leverage plays into FOMC; Meta / Microsoft / MSTR the passive holds.
Summary of the weekly members video for educational purposes only. Not financial advice, not a recommendation, and not a trade signal. Past analysis is not indicative of future results.